Zimbabweans abroad watch and await post-Mugabe era

By Luke Baker

LONDON (Reuters) - Like millions of Zimbabweans living abroad, Leslie Maruziva follows the tortuous power-sharing talks going on at home. He wonders about leaving London and going back. But for now, he is unconvinced.

Up to 4 million Zimbabweans are estimated to live outside the country, in neighboring South Africa, Mozambique or Botswana, or further afield in Britain, the United States and Canada, while around 13 million remain at home.

If President Robert Mugabe were to step down or agree to share power with the opposition, which boycotted June elections condemned internationally as unfair, many might decide to return to Zimbabwe. But until there are guarantees about the pace and extent of change, most will hold off.

"I have one eye looking very closely at developments back home -- I speak to people, I have family there -- but I'm not going to rush anything," said Maruziva, 38, a senior executive with the London Development Agency.

He has lived in Britain since 1989 and is now married -- to a Ghanaian -- with young children. His friends in Britain include Zimbabwean investment bankers and doctors.

"I've been here a long time, I have a family here and it's not just a case of upping and leaving and going back. There's a lot to take into account. I know a lot of Zimbabwean professionals who are in a similar situation."

A large percentage of those who have left Zimbabwe are well-educated professionals -- the kind of people many African countries want to lure back. They have found jobs in their adopted countries and started families. Returning when things are uncertain is, for many, just too much of a risk.

"I don't want to go back blind," Maruziva said. "I need to be able to go back and set myself up with a job that allows me to provide for my family, both my immediate family and the extended family, and that is not going to happen overnight.

"Political stability is essential, and other things will fall into place after that, but it will take time."

EYEING THE PRIZE

Thousands of Nigerians, Kenyans, Ghanaians and other Africans, who left as refugees or to study and work abroad, have returned home in recent years to invest, eager to help their countries' development and cash in on opportunities for growth.

But the countries that have enticed back their educated diaspora are generally relatively stable -- like Ghana and Nigeria -- or have enjoyed several years of peace after war, like Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Zimbabwe has not been at war but its once promising economy is in ruins, with the world's highest inflation and chronic fuel and food shortages. Without a resolution to the political crisis, there is little hope of economic recovery.

Zimbabweans, whether educated professionals or the millions of less well-off who have fled by foot across the border, can't afford to wait forever for their homeland to turn around.

Traditionally a stable and productive nation, Zimbabwe has natural beauty, minerals like platinum, gold and diamonds and an education system that is the envy of the rest of Africa. As a place to invest, it is a hot ticket and the earliest movers may very likely have an advantage.