ANALYSTS' VIEW: Conflict in Georgia and its breakaway region

PRAGUE (Reuters) - Russian troops and armor pushed into two separatist regions of Georgia on Monday and Georgian forces shelled the Russian-held capital of South Ossetia as the Caucasus crisis worsened.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili accused Russia of seeking to overthrow his pro-western government, while Russia said it had no intention of invading.

Following are comments from security, political and economic analysts on the crisis:

MATTHEW CLEMENTS, EDITOR, JANE'S EURASIA

"The current conflict faces a real risk of escalation and expansion, most prominently in Abkhazia where the likelihood of an operation to clear Georgian forces from the Kodori Gorge appears increasingly likely."

"Air strikes are likely to continue for the immediate term as Russia seeks to further degrade Georgia's military capabilities. Moscow is now likely to seek the restoration of South Ossetia's de facto independence, albeit on much more favorable terms to the separatists and Russia itself."

"The European and U.S. criticism of Russia's response is likely to lead to a further downturn in Russo-Western relations, although any more serious diplomatic responses will likely be dependent upon Russian actions over the next few days."

"Overall, Georgia is facing reduced control over both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a short- to medium-term reduction in its military capabilities and greatly reduced hopes of one day joining NATO, with the organization likely to view Tbilisi's actions in South Ossetia as being far too unpredictable for a potential alliance member."

STEPHEN LEWIS, ANALYST, MONUMENT SECURITIES

"The military action in Georgia is a reminder to financial markets that geopolitical risks remain significant, even if, in recent times, they have been overshadowed by economic and credit risks."

"The Russian invasion of Georgia is not the first sign that the Putin-dominated Kremlin has been gaining in confidence as its oil revenues swelled. Nevertheless, it probably does represent the crossing of a line that puts an end to the relatively pacific chapter of world history that began in 1991."

ROMAN KUZNIAR, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, WARSAW

UNIVERSITY

"This was unfortunately all provoked by Georgia. It light-heartedly started its military operation in South Ossetia and Saakashvili did not take into account such a reaction."

"Of course the sympathy is on the side of the weaker group, for Georgia, especially as it is fighting a country that has caused a lot of suffering to all of its neighbors."

"But realistic analysis show the Georgians made a big mistake. Now Georgia will have to take the toll, most probably disproportionally severe."