Andes brinkmanship fuels risk of border clash

By Patrick Markey - Analysis

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Venezuela and Ecuador may be rattling sabers more than preparing for war by sending thousands of troops to Colombia's borders, but the brinkmanship in a growing Andes crisis raises the risk of conflict.

Alvaro Uribe, Colombia's president and the recipient of billions of dollars in U.S. military aid, now faces two antagonistic fronts in the Andean region, where leftist leaders are fiercely opposed to Washington's "imperialist" policies.

"We are not going to see a major conflagration, but you could see shots fired across the border because of accidents. Accidents can happen when tensions are this high," said Frank Mora, a Latin America expert at the National War College.

"I would like to see how many battalions and how many tanks he (Chavez) actually sends. It is one thing what he says, it is quite another to see the evidence on the border," he said.

The crisis was sparked when Colombian troops attacked a Colombian guerrilla camp inside Ecuadorean territory over the weekend, killing a senior FARC rebel commander.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his leftist ally in Ecuador, Rafael Correa, both quickly responded by deploying troops to their borders with Colombia.

Chavez, who says Washington wants to kill him and calls Uribe a U.S. pawn, closed down his embassy in the Colombian capital of Bogota and ordered tank battalions to the border.

Although analysts say the dispute helps Chavez distract attention away from food shortages and other problems at home, the troop deployments carry risks.