Petraeus to update Congress on Iraq

By Kristin Roberts

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, will not promise Congress large troop withdrawals beyond July, saying it is too soon to make decisions about the second half of the year, defense officials say.

Petraeus will tell Congress next week the U.S. military needs time to evaluate security conditions throughout Iraq before committing to more large troop reductions in 2008.

That assessment period, often referred to as a "pause" in withdrawals, has assumed greater significance for Pentagon officials after last week's clashes in Baghdad and Basra between Iraqi forces and Shi'ite militiaman -- fighting that raised doubts about the skill of U.S.-trained Iraqi soldiers.

"It is the kind of violence and lack of security that would certainly drive an assessment of what we would do after that (pause in withdrawals)," said Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.

"The period of consolidation and evaluation will take place and we'll take recommendations based on conditions on the ground there," Mullen said ahead of Petraeus' testimony.

That call for a pause will likely rile Democrats and other opponents of the Bush administration's Iraq policy, who have latched onto the Basra fighting as a sign the increase or "surge" of U.S. troops last year failed to move Iraqis any closer to security or political stability.

"I think it's time we take a sober look," said Sen. Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat and chairman of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee.

"My question really is ... not whether the surge has tactically worked or not. Has the purpose of the surge been accomplished?"

The Pentagon is pulling five brigades, about 20,000 combat troops, out of Iraq under plans announced last year. Two of the five have already left.

The reduction will bring the number of combat troops down to the level of U.S. forces in Iraq before the "surge."

The United States has 158,000 troops in Iraq now and Petraeus is expected to tell Congress exactly how many troops will be in Iraq when current reductions are finished in July.

He may discuss the possibility of restarting withdrawals and the potential pace of any drawdown. But an assessment period will come first, according to officials who say the pause could last at least a month and perhaps much longer.

U.S. troop levels could, in fact, remain above 130,000 when a new president takes office in January 2009.

The pause will also add stress to an already strained U.S. force -- a problem often voiced by the chiefs of America's military branches, especially the Army. It could delay Pentagon efforts to get soldiers back to 12-month deployments, down from the 15-month tours they now serve in Iraq.

SURGE SUCCESS?