Congress seen passing India nuke deal eventually

By Arshad Mohammed

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The odds of the U.S. Congress passing a U.S.-India civil nuclear deal this year are long, U.S. congressional aides and analysts said on Sunday, but the deal is all but certain to win approval eventually.

The Bush administration took a major step toward enacting the agreement on Saturday, when the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group blessed a U.S. proposal to lift a global ban on nuclear trade with India.

Congressional blessing is the last hurdle to the deal, which the Bush administration believes will forge a strategic partnership with the world's largest democracy, help India meet rising energy demand and open a nuclear market worth billions.

But the agreement has raised international misgivings because India has shunned the Nonproliferation Treaty meant to stop the spread and production of nuclear weapons and as well as a companion international agreement banning nuclear tests.

Critics believe the deal undermines efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and sets a precedent allowing other nations to seek to buy such technology without submitting to the full range of global nonproliferation safeguards.

The pact passed another key hurdle on August 1 when the International Atomic Energy Commission, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, approved an inspections plan for some -- but not all -- of India nuclear facilities.

Asked if clearing the final hurdle, U.S. congressional approval, this year would be like hitting three consecutive holes-in-one in golf, a senior U.S. official replied with a laugh: "No. You underestimate the difficulty."

The official, who spoke on condition that he not be named, said the Bush administration would reach out to congressional leaders to see how it might be possible to complete the deal before U.S. President George W. Bush leaves office on January 20.

Before it even can send the deal to Congress for final approval, the administration must certify to lawmakers that India has met certain conditions.

Among these, the official said India has yet to make "substantial progress" toward concluding an agreement with the IAEA on an "additional protocol" of safeguards to verify it is using civilian nuclear facilities only for peaceful purposes.

He said it has also has not yet formally adhered to the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime, a voluntary pact that aims to limit the spread of ballistic missile technology.

PROFITS OVER NONPROLIFERATION?

Once the agreement has been sent to Congress, under current law it must remain for 30 days before it can be voted on.

Given that Congress is expected to adjourn by the end of September so lawmakers can campaign for the November 4 U.S. election, there is not enough time to meet the 30-day requirement without a "lame duck" session after the election.

Congressional aides said there were ways to circumvent the 30-day requirement but all required the solid support of the Democratic leadership of both houses of Congress.