Is Blair headed for Mideast diplomatic hot seat?

By Matt Spetalnick - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Tony Blair could soon find himself on a diplomatic hot seat that has burned other high-profile players if the Bush administration pushes him to become Middle East envoy.

And Blair's chances for success would seem no more promising, analysts said.

Washington has signaled its interest in Blair taking the job of special envoy representing the "Quartet" of world powers trying to mediate the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In New York, U.N. spokeswoman Michele Montas said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice raised the issue of Blair's role during a Quartet phone call on Thursday. "The issue is still under discussion," the spokeswoman said.

If the idea goes forward, it could reflect a renewed U.S. sense of urgency in the aftermath of Hamas's violent takeover of the Gaza Strip last week, widely seen as a blow to President George W. Bush's Middle East policy.

"If this is serious, it's about time," said Judith Kipper, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Bush had promised to do something about the Israeli-Palestinian problem many times before but that has never materialized."

Blair leaves office next week and has yet to say whether he wants the envoy job, but he has international stature and a close relationship with Bush that could help the Quartet -- the United States, the European Union, United Nations and Russia.

He would also face tough obstacles.

Blair is deeply unpopular in the Arab world, a vital component of any Middle East peace deal, for Britain's role in the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and his refusal to press for an immediate ceasefire in last year's Israel-Hezbollah war.

Blair has also paid a steep political price at home for embracing Bush and enlisting in the Iraq war, for which his British critics have derided him as Bush's "poodle."

"His closeness to Bush and association with Iraq could definitely be a hindrance," said Haim Malka, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Most Palestinians are skeptical of Bush's ability to act as an honest broker for peace, having sided so often with Israel, Washington's closest ally in the region.

ISRAELI MISGIVINGS?

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has backed Blair becoming "actively involved" in the Middle East, but the British leader and the Israelis have not always seen eye to eye on how best to move forward with the Palestinians.

Blair frequently has urged Bush to take a more assertive role in resolving the conflict, seeing it as one of the catalysts for Islamic militancy fueling the post-invasion violence in Iraq -- a linkage that Israeli officials reject.