Punishing Moscow could also hurt West, analysts say

By Susan Cornwell - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has meager options for punishing Russia for recognizing rebel regions of Georgia because it needs Moscow's help in trying to stop Iran's nuclear program and dismantle North Korea's atomic arsenal.

Washington could move to exclude Russia from global clubs like the World Trade Organization but analysts say it would not have much impact now that Russia has defied the West and recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

"A country that was emboldened to roll over Georgia and rip off its territory is not going to get frightened by the WTO or the G8. They are past that now," said Janusz Bugajski of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank.

The United States has already taken some small steps against Russia since U.S. ally Georgia and Russia briefly went to war over separatist South Ossetia earlier this month.

The United States has canceled a military exercise with Russia, and has warned that Moscow was risking its membership in global clubs like the WTO and Group of Eight nations.

U.S. officials said they were considering whether to withdraw a civilian nuclear cooperation pact with the Kremlin.

They also signed a pact with Poland to station parts of a U.S. missile defense shield on Polish soil, but insisted that it was not related to the Georgia crisis.

Then Russia went further on Tuesday by recognizing both South Ossetia and another breakaway region of Georgia, Abkhazia, as independent states.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded by warning that the United States would block any Russian attempt at the United Nations to change international borders.

State Department spokesman Robert Wood said the U.S. government was weighing other options but declined to discuss them. Military intervention to support Georgia against Russia has appeared unthinkable.

If Washington imposes sanctions on Moscow, it could in turn see Moscow refuse to go along with new sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program, said Dimitri Simes, president of The Nixon Center in Washington.

The Kremlin is unlikely to accept punishment on one track and deliver "goodies" to the West on the other, he said, adding that Russia might look elsewhere for friends.

"If they feel that a Western orientation is not an option, they will be looking for friends where they can find them, starting with Tehran and Caracas," he said, referring to the capitals of Iran and Venezuela, whose leaders routinely berate the United States.

'TIT FOR TAT'

Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations said Moscow's recognition of Georgia's rebel regions appeared to be "tit for tat" for U.S. recognition of Kosovo earlier this year.