FACTBOX: Post-February 5 scenarios in political race

Mon Feb 4, 2008 10:24am EST
 
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(Reuters) - Twenty-four states hold nominating contests on "Super Tuesday" in the biggest single day in the process to choose candidates for the November presidential election, but the nominees may not be determined until more contests are held weeks or even months later.

Here are some scenarios for the U.S. presidential nomination beyond February 5:

* Because Democrats distribute delegates among candidates in proportion to their vote statewide and in individual congressional districts, those who lose a state can still come away with a big chunk of delegates.

Thus neither New York Sen. Hillary Clinton nor Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is likely to land a knockout punch, but one could emerge with a significant lead in delegates.

* Clinton, a former first lady, is well known to voters and has maintained a lead in nationwide polls even as Obama won early state contests in Iowa and South Carolina. A longer campaign could benefit Obama as he gets a chance to introduce himself to more voters.

* A close contest could hinge on the nearly 800 Democratic "superdelegates" who can support whichever candidate they want. Clinton and Obama are avidly courting these elected officials and party insiders, who account for one-fifth of the party's 4,049 delegates.

* In the Republican contest, 13 Super Tuesday states award all of their delegates to the winner. That gives Arizona Sen. John McCain an opportunity to build an insurmountable lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and win over conservatives who remain skeptical of his stance on taxes and the environment.

* Romney, a wealthy former venture capitalist, has spent more than $35 million of his own money and could stay in the race even if a disappointing Super Tuesday hurts his fund-raising efforts.

* Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has not won a state contest since the kickoff Iowa caucus, but he is focusing his efforts on Southern states and other areas where religious conservatives are a factor. His continued presence in the race could hurt Romney, who needs these votes to catch McCain.

(Reporting by Andy Sullivan, editing by Vicki Allen)

(For more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at http:blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)

 

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