FACTBOX: Evolving scenarios for Pakistan's split vote

(Reuters) - As bad as results in Pakistan's parliamentary elections look for President Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday, the former commando could shore up his position for some time more by dividing his victorious rivals.

Shortly after 1 p.m. (3 a.m. EST), results for 248 of 342 seats in the National Assembly were in, according to Geo News, an independent television channel.

It showed the Pakistan People's Party of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto leading with 85, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) of Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister rigidly opposed to Musharraf, on 64, and the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (PML) a distant third with 37.

Here are some of the possible scenarios, though the probabilities will alter as the count goes on;

-- If, as seems likely, Bhutto's PPP emerges as the largest party in the assembly without getting a majority, it will be in the market for coalition partners.

-- Musharraf's camp will be downhearted, but probably not surprised by the scale of the PML's losses and will be hoping that the party musters enough seats to hold some leverage when the PPP assesses who it needs for partners.

-- An alliance between the PPP and the party of Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister Musharraf toppled in a coup in 1999, would probably lead to Musharraf's swift exit.

The president could be impeached, or made to seek a pardon from parliament for invoking emergency rule last November, or the government could try to reinstate the judges Musharraf fired before they could annul his re-election last October.

The possibility of Musharraf resigning if this scenario took shape cannot be discounted.

-- But Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari, who took over the helm after her assassination in December, might decide the PPP would be better off cohabiting with a clutch of smaller parties, possibly including the pro-Musharraf PML, rather than risk confrontation when it has power in its grasp.

-- Shunning Sharif is not without risk for Zardari. He still has to consolidate his own position as the head of the PPP, and striking any compromises that allow Musharraf to survive will be distasteful for many in the party and people who voted against the pro-Musharraf parties.

-- If the PPP wins enough seats it could potentially form a coalition without either Sharif's party or the PML. But that would leave it under-represented in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous and richest province and home to the establishment.

-- Zardari was jailed during Sharif's premiership in the 1990s, and it was Sharif who hounded Bhutto into exile in 1999, so trust will be an issue.

-- Zardari and Sharif met last week. But their common fear then was that rigging by the government would rob them of victory, as it raised the prospects of confronting the army if their party activists went on the streets to protest.

The whole country was breathing a sigh of relief that this worst-case scenario has been avoided.

(Writing by Simon Cameron-Moore; Editing by David Fogarty)