Ex-minister says ANC close to split

Analysis

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Former South African Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota said Wednesday the ruling ANC was close to splitting but stopped short of calling for a breakaway party.

Talk Radio 702 earlier reported that Lekota and other loyalists of ousted president Thabo Mbeki would form a new party.

Below are possible political developments in South Africa.

ELECTORAL CHANCES

Even if Lekota forms a new party, it may be hard pressed to mobilize the large number of supporters needed to defeat the African National Congress. With a general election due around April of next year, Lekota will have little time to pose a serious challenge in the general election, although it could reduce the ANC's current two-thirds parliamentary majority.

FATE OF THE ANC

The ANC faced the biggest crisis in its history after the party forced Thabo Mbeki to resign over political meddling in the graft case of ANC leader Jacob Zuma. Even if Lekota secures significant backing from disgruntled ANC members and make political waves, Zuma is widely expected to win the election.

HOW WILL THE ANC LEADERSHIP RESPOND?

The ANC is likely to reject Lekota's call for change in the party and may be happy to see him go.

President Kgalema Motlanthe, who replaced Mbeki, is seen as a steady and cautious hand whose popularity crosses party lines. But if Lekota adopts a more centrist policy, as expected, he could attract many of the party's more affluent members who have gained from Mbeki's business-friendly policies.

The ANC may have to try and placate those members, sidelining some of the more radical elements in the party. But analysts doubt Lekota can bring together enough votes to change the country's political landscape.

(Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Louise Ireland)