Conflict puts the brakes on Syria-Israel peace

By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent - Analysis

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israel's assault on Gaza has prompted Syria to rule out an early resumption of indirect peace talks, without killing off Syrian interest in an eventual deal.

"Certainly for a period of time it changes the mood, the public rhetoric and the tensions, but in the end it doesn't change the strategic options of any of the players," said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Institute's Middle East Centre.

Arab and Muslim fury aroused by Israeli air raids on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip has made it impossible to pick up the talks, Syria and mediator Turkey say.

"It is not possible to carry on the negotiations under these conditions," Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said on Monday as the Gaza death toll rose above 300 in three days of bombing.

Israel says it is trying to halt cross-border rocket attacks that intensified after a six-month, Egyptian-brokered ceasefire with Hamas expired on December 19. The Islamist group blames the truce's demise on Israeli attacks and a tight blockade of Gaza.

Without mentioning the already suspended talks, a Syrian official declared on Sunday that Israel's action in Gaza "closes the door on the movement for a peaceful political settlement."

Salem said such reactions were predictable, but argued that progress on the Israeli-Syrian track would depend on whether the next Israeli prime minister decides to pursue it and on how seriously U.S. President-elect Barack Obama backs the effort.

Israel holds a parliamentary election on February 10 to find a replacement for its caretaker prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who resigned in September. Obama will be sworn in on January 20.

"I think the Syrians would respond seriously to a serious Israeli approach," Salem said, adding that he expected an Obama administration to take the Israeli-Syria peace track seriously. "The events in Gaza do not fundamentally impact that logic."

Syria has held four indirect rounds of talks with Israel in Turkey this year, but these were put on hold after Olmert quit.

While still under U.S. sanctions, Syria has regained some European approval after backing a peace pact for Lebanon and forging diplomatic ties with the neighbor it once dominated.

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Yet at the same time, it has kept up its longstanding alliance with Iran and support for Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said last week that the Turkish-brokered drive could lead to direct talks and a peace deal if Israel relinquished the Golan Heights, captured in 1967, and the United States came on board as a sponsor.

Washington has remained aloof since U.S.-supervised negotiations between the two countries collapsed in 2000 over the scope of a proposed Israeli withdrawal from the Golan.