Obama's silence on Gaza confirms low Arab expectations

By Jonathan Wright - Analysis

CAIRO (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, with his silence on Israel's attacks in Gaza, has confirmed Arab expectations that foreign policy changes will come small and slow when he moves into the White House next month.

On the fourth day of Israeli air strikes which have killed more than 380 people in Gaza, the U.S. President-elect has yet to take a position, though he spoke out after militants' attacks in Mumbai and has made detailed statements on the U.S. economy.

"He wants to be cautious and I think he will remain cautious because the Arab-Israeli conflict is not one of his priorities," said Hassan Nafaa, an Egyptian political scientist and secretary-general of the Arab Thought Forum in Amman.

"Obama's position is very precarious. The Jewish lobby warned against his election, so he has chosen to remain silent (on Gaza)," added Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.

"If Obama continues to remain silent ... his silence will be seen and will have the operational effect of providing an endorsement for Israel's war on Gaza," said Paul Woodward of Conflicts Forum, an organization aimed at changing Western policy toward Islamist movements such as Hamas.

The Arab world was largely enthusiastic about Obama's election victory in November, in the belief that a fresh face in the White House must be better than outgoing President George W. Bush, who invaded Iraq and gave strong support to Israel.

"BEST FRIENDS OF ISRAEL"

But his choice of a foreign policy team, especially Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff, have raised doubts that much will change.

Mustapha el-Sayed of Cairo University said: "I am really pessimistic ... because when I see the kind of people who surround President-elect Obama I find they are the best friends of Israel who do not dare to distance themselves from the positions of the Israeli government."

Unlike most major governments, the Bush administration has not called for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and the Islamist movement Hamas, which runs Gaza, adopting an approach similar to that it took when Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006.

It opposed a ceasefire in Lebanon until it became clear that Israel could not achieve its war aims against Hezbollah guerrillas and that Israeli casualties were becoming too high.

Nafaa said the Israeli government chose this time to attack Hamas partly because it was not sure that it would have Obama's support if it waited until he takes office on January 20. "But it knows it has the unconditional support of Bush," he added.

The outcome of the Gaza campaign will, however, have a big impact on the geostrategic landscape which Obama inherits.

If Israel fails to defeat Hamas, the Islamist movement could emerge stronger, at the expense of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the Egyptian government -- the Arabs on whom the United States most depends in its Arab-Israeli policy.

If Israel succeeds and eliminates the threat from rockets fired from Gaza, Obama could more easily revive direct talks between Israel and Abbas on a peace agreement based on two states living side by side.