Bush administration struggles over Gaza approach

By Sue Pleming - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With three weeks to go, the Bush administration is struggling over how to tackle Middle East violence, hobbled by the exit of key diplomats and cautious after a dismal diplomatic effort in Lebanon in 2006.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President George W. Bush have worked the phones with Western and Arab allies since Israel attacked Gaza and Hamas fired rockets into the Jewish state with the collapse of a ceasefire.

But several experts and diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said divisions had emerged with the White House leaning toward letting Israel go on pounding Hamas targets in Gaza and the State Department more cautious.

"There seems to be a lot of internal debate inside the administration," one Arab diplomat said.

A Western diplomat, who also asked not to be identified as his comments were sensitive, said the State Department was mindful of how Arab opinion turned against the United States during the Lebanon war because of U.S. support for Israel.

"The old splits seem to be open," the diplomat said of apparent divisions between the National Security Council at the White House and the State Department.

Complicating the picture is the departure two weeks ago of the State Department's key diplomat for the Middle East, David Welch, while others are also packing their bags. Bush, viewed by many as strongly pro-Israel, leaves office on January 20.

MEMORIES OF 2006

During the 2006 war between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel, Rice came under heavy criticism for demanding not an immediate ceasefire but rather that world leaders work urgently to reach a "sustainable" accord to stop the fighting.

That was interpreted as giving Israel a green light to keep on pounding Lebanon.

"There is much more caution this time. Our policy-makers are heavily conditioned by 2006, especially Secretary Rice," said one Middle East expert, who asked not to be identified.

Rice's comments in 2006 that the Lebanon crisis amounted to the "birth pangs of a new Middle East" were later seen as a big mistake and there has since been more care not to repeat such semantic errors.

A diplomat said there was also a lack of confidence in the Israelis and fears that they might launch a ground offensive, coupled with a realization that many Israeli actions have political overtones because of a February 10 general election.

After the fighting broke out in Gaza, Rice issued a statement urging the ceasefire be "restored immediately."

Later State Department comments were more in line with the White House stance, which called for a "durable and sustainable ceasefire," implying stricter terms and conditions for reaching such a truce, which would take longer.