SCENARIOS: No quick fix in sight for Honduras crisis

By Daniel Trotta

TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) - Honduras was locked in crisis on Friday with both men who claim to be the legitimate president after the June 28 coup each sticking to conflicting and seemingly intractable positions.

Ousted President Manuel Zelaya insists he should be reinstated immediately but has been shut out of his country, traveling the Americas in search of international support.

Interim President Roberto Micheletti, installed by Congress after the coup, says Zelaya disqualified himself by violating the constitution when he pursued a vote meant to gauge public support for a constituent assembly on lifting presidential term limits.

Following are possible scenarios on how the crisis could play out:

THE STATUS QUO HOLDS:

This would seem the most likely scenario at the moment.

Micheletti could continue to ignore calls from the United States and the Organization of American States to reinstate Zelaya, keep himself in power until November 29 elections and hand over to a new president for the January 27 inauguration.

Micheletti has the support of the Supreme Court, a majority in Congress, the high command of the armed forces and business leaders, all of whom played a role in stripping Zelaya of power and expelling him from the country.

Many Zelaya opponents are hoping to run out the clock until new elections are held, producing a new president that the world could recognize.

The consequences? Further diplomatic isolation and possible domestic unrest. The OAS expelled Honduras and the United States cut off $16.5 million in military aid and a further $180 million in civilian aid could also be at risk. Additional stress on the economy could draw down foreign reserves, weaken the lempira currency and cause inflation.

MEDIATOR OSCAR ARIAS DELIVERS A MIRACLE:

The Costa Rican president is mediating the Honduran dispute and received both Zelaya and Micheletti on Thursday, but he could not get them to meet face-to-face.

"Dialogue can produce miracles but not immediate ones and this could possibly take much longer than one might imagine," Arias said.

Any mediated solution would likely include immunity against prosecution for all the major players.

The consequences? A lengthy process would also create economic instability and draw close to the November elections, leaving Zelaya with the prospect of a reinstatement so abbreviated as to be meaningless.