SCENARIOS: Implications of Pakistani Taliban leader's death

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - U.S. and Pakistani officials say they are heartened by signs of a rift between Pakistani Taliban factions following the apparent death of militant leader Baitullah Mehsud.

Mehsud was the overall head of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Taliban Movement of Pakistan, a loose alliance of 13 factions. He is believed to have been killed in a U.S. missile strike on August 5.

Following are some possible outcomes of Mehsud's death and the impact on Pakistan, Afghanistan and Western countries that have troops there.

CHAOS IN TALIBAN RANKS

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told a joint news conference with U.S. special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke on Sunday that there was confusion, disarray and many reports of infighting within the TTP following the report of Mehsud's death. Holbrooke told reporters traveling with him to Pakistan that Mehsud was "gone" and it looked as if there was a struggle for succession among his commanders.

A splintering of the Taliban would be a major coup for Pakistan, hindering the militants' ability to conduct coordinated attacks, as the estimated 20,000 to 30,000 fighters under Mehsud's command are subsumed by various rival commanders.

Mehsud's fighters are already facing tremendous pressure after security forces cordoned off their strongholds in South Waziristan as part of a government order to the military in June to pursue Mehsud and his group. They are also facing regular strikes by pilot less U.S. drone aircraft, such as the one that apparently killed Mehsud.

Analysts say Mehsud's death could demoralize his loyalists and could enable the government to exploit divisions by winning over moderate militants to isolate more hard-core elements.

IMPLICATIONS FOR AFGHANISTAN

Mehsud was an ethnic Pashtun from Pakistan and while he had links with the Afghan Taliban, most of whom are Afghan ethnic Pashtuns fighting to oust foreign forces from their country, the focus of Mehsud's attacks was Pakistan and its security forces.

Afghan Taliban factions, some of whose members operate out of northwest Pakistan, have largely avoided fighting Pakistani security forces. Mehsud's elimination, therefore, would not necessarily mean a disruption of militant attacks in Afghanistan.

Indeed, cross-border attacks into Afghanistan could intensify if Mehsud is replaced by a commander more intent on the fight against foreign forces there rather than fighting Pakistan.

Mehsud's Taliban allies in Afghanistan, as well as al Qaeda, could try to forge unity in the ranks of Mehsud's commanders as they attempt to choose a new leader. Any increased link between the TTP and the groups focused on fighting in Afghanistan could create more difficulty for Western forces in Afghanistan.

IMPLICATIONS FOR AL QAEDA

The death of Mehsud would, however, be a big loss for al Qaeda as he had been considered an increasingly important ally of Osama bin Laden's group and had reportedly provided sanctuary to its operatives.

Mehsud was also believed to have trained and supplied suicide bombers for attacks by al Qaeda and allied factions in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Security officials and analysts believe that Mehsud used al Qaeda's expertise in some of the high-profile attacks he masterminded in Pakistani towns and cities, such as the 2007 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. (Editing by Robert Birsel)