DETROIT Feb 28 The Chinese market for
medium- and heavy-duty trucks will cool down over the next eight
years, according to a Boston Consulting Group study, which
projects sales growth in the country will lag that of the global
At the same time, there will be growing demand in China and
other emerging markets for more upscale trucks outfitted with
air conditioning, radios and air bags, said the study, which was
released on Tuesday.
The global truck market is expected to rise 3 percent to 6.7
million sales by 2020 from 2010 levels. China will account for
about half of the world's truck sales in 2020, but its market
will grow just 1 percent, Boston Consulting projects.
"China will not grow in the next 10 years," said Nikolaus
Lang, a Munich-based consultant, who helped write the report.
"We've gotten so used to the fact in the auto industry that
China is kind of continuously growing, growing, growing,
especially if you look at China from the passenger car segment."
Sales in China, which now dominates the global truck market,
were nearly 3 million in 2010 spurred by a government stimulus.
But that stimulus no longer exists and operators are expected to
use their fleets more efficiently, the consulting group said.
Currently, the global truck market is split between premium
and low-cost segments, with emerging markets clamoring for
low-cost options. But now demand for midmarket trucks is on the
upswing in these markets, particularly in Russia and India.
Boston Consulting expects truck buyers to upgrade to these
vehicles from their current stable of low-cost, spartan trucks.
The "midmarket" truck segment in the four countries known as
the BRIC markets -- Brazil, Russia, India and China-- will
account for 44 percent of global sales in 2020, the study said.
These trucks cost about 50 percent more than their low-cost
counterparts. For truck makers to grow and expand in the crowded
Chinese market, they will need to offer competitive offerings in
this midmarket segment, Lang said. In 2010, there were 19
companies with sales of 20,000 trucks or more in China.
Overall, sales in the four BRIC market countries will
account for two-thirds of truck sales by 2020, up from one-third
Sales in the "Triad markets" of North America, Western
Europe and Japan are expected to rise 6 percent to about 1.5
million by 2020, the study said.
(Reporting By Deepa Seetharaman; editing by Gunna Dickson)