DETROIT Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) and BMW (BMWG.DE) are the favorites to add market share in the global auto industry over the next five years, according to a survey of top automotive executives released on Wednesday.
Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) saw a big rebound in its standing, and while the combination of Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS) and its Kia Motors Corp (000270.KS) affiliate still ranked fourth, the number of executives who felt they will gain market share declined, according to the survey conducted by advisory firm KPMG.
VW topped the list for the third consecutive year, and the percentage of executives who believe the German automaker will gain market share globally jumped 11 points to 81 percent, according to KPMG. BMW was second at 70 percent, up 7 points from last year's survey.
"VW has been No. 1 for the last three years, but to continue and to have an 11-point increase, I was taken aback by it," said Gary Silberg, national auto industry leader for KPMG.
Toyota, which suffered a hit to its image when it recalled nearly 19 million cars globally from 2009 through early 2011, showed the biggest gain, KPMG said. It finished third at 68 percent, up from 44 percent last year.
Hyundai and Kia finished at 61 percent, down 2 points from last year and 11 points below its score in 2011, KPMG said. Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T) was fifth at 50 percent, followed by Ford Motor Co (F.N) and General Motors Co (GM.N), each at 44 percent. In 2010, only 13 percent of those polled thought GM would increase its market share.
Fiat SpA FIA.MI and its Chrysler unit ranked ninth at 37 percent, in between Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE) (41 percent) and Honda Motor Co Ltd (7267.T) (34 percent), KPMG said. The brands most often predicted to lose market share included Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd's Subaru (7270.T), Mitsubishi (7211.T), Mazda (7261.T) and Suzuki (7269.T).
When including newer emerging brands, KPMG said the top 10 would include four Chinese automakers: BAIC Group (No. 3), SAIC Motor (600104.SS) (No. 6), FAW Group (No. 7) and Geely (0175.HK) (No. 8), as well as India's Tata (TAMO.NS) (No. 10). However, their shares are much smaller, so gains would not be a surprise.
KPMG also found that 64 percent of executives polled said their companies will increase investment in new plants over the next five years, up from 55 percent last year. The executives said their companies intend to bring new plants online despite the fact that more than half say there are overcapacity risks in many mature markets.
One-quarter of those polled said the best way to solve overcapacity issues globally is consolidation and joint ventures, KPMG said.
Seventy-one percent of the executives also believe improving internal combustion engines will offer greater efficiency and lower pollution potential for the next six to 10 years than any electric vehicle technology, KPMG said. Two-thirds do not expect electric car sales to top 15 percent of global demand before 2025.
KPMG polled 200 senior global auto industry executives in November 2012 for the 14th annual survey. The majority were from outside North America.
(Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit; editing by Matthew Lewis)