Goldman Sachs said in a research note dated Monday it expected oil prices to rise to the low $50s per barrel in the event of producer cartel OPEC reaching an agreement to cut production at a meeting in Vienna scheduled for Nov. 30.
Markets were on edge ahead of the meeting of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday as there remained disagreement among members over which producers should cut and by how much. At 0632 GMT, Brent LCOc1 was trading at 47.80 per barrel.
At an assumed cut to 32.5 million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs told clients in the note the Brent market was pricing in a 30 percent probability of a deal being reached, with a $6 per barrel move the implied volatility on Wednesday.
In the absence of a deal, the bank warned, rising inventories through the first half of next year would mean prices averaging $45 per barrel through next summer.
(Reporting by Apeksha Nair in BENGALURU; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)