NEW YORK The recovery in the U.S. economy and labor market is expected to be modestly slower in the fourth quarter than previously expected, according to a survey of forecasters released on Monday.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey of 43 professional forecasters sees the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the current quarter, down from the estimate of 2.8 percent three months ago.
The unemployment rate was forecast to be 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter, in line with the previous estimate. But forecasters revised down the growth in jobs expected over the next four quarters.
Forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 86,600 jobs per month this quarter and 104,200 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2011. This is down from previous expectations of 114,100 and 159,300, respectively.
Forecasters cut their inflation expectations. Over the next 10 years, forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.2 percent at an annual rate, down from 2.3 percent in the last survey. The 10-year outlook for PCE inflation of 2 percent is lower than the previous forecast of 2.11 percent.
(Reporting by Leah Schnurr, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)