WRAPUP 1-Russia talks higher deficit as banks need capital

Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:08am EDT
 
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* Kremlin aide says budget deficit may top 6 pct in 2010

* State to spend 0.5 pct of GDP on banks' capital-Kudrin

* Alfa Bank, Fitch bearish on bad loans

* Railways head says more nationalisations needed

By Darya Korsunskaya and Toni Vorobyova

MOSCOW, June 30 (Reuters) - Russia's budget deficit could top 6 percent of economic output in 2010 because the country needs to recapitalise banks that are struggling with bad loans, officials said on Tuesday.

A top banking executive and ratings agency Fitch suggested that prognosis might be too optimistic because banks may need 10 times as much cash as the 210 billion roubles ($6.75 billion) or 0.5 percent of gross domestic product officials suggested. [ID:nL043234]

Fitch said Russian corporations may default on as much as $130 billion in loans. [ID:nLU501949]

Russia could cut rates by a further 150 basis points in 2009, a central bank official said, to revive bank lending and prevent the slowdown from stretching into 2010 and beyond.

"If prices for oil and natural resources do not sharply rise... then the deficit in 2010 will be more than 5 percent and likely even more than 6 percent of GDP..." the Kremlin's top economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich told reporters.

Energy taxes constitute the lion's share of state revenues and a plunge in oil prices forced Russia to recalculate its 2009 budget at $41 per barrel from the previous $95, which resulted in an 8 percent deficit of around $113 billion.

Russia had hoped for a deficit of 5 percent in 2010 and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has said Russia cannot afford a deficit of 13 percent -- an indirect reference to the United States, which may run a deficit of $1.43 trillion next year.

With Russia battling its first recession in a decade and foreign capital markets still virtually closed off in the aftermath of the global credit crunch, its banks are under increasing pressure to support the economy.

"The banking sector needs up to 10 percent of GDP, otherwise we won't restart," said Peter Aven, the head of Russia's top private bank Alfa Bank.

"Enterprises could well not redeem $130 billion of their core debt. Bad loans of some 25-30 percent (of the total portfolio) by the end of the crisis is a reality today," Aven, known for his bearish views, told a conference.  Continued...

 

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