WEEKAHEAD - the view from Reuters Asia news editors
SINGAPORE, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Following is the view from Reuters Asia editors on the news that is likely to matter most for the week ahead starting Nov. 16:
* OBAMA YUAN: Currency, trade in spotlight
* JAPAN ECONOMY: Risk of double-dip recession?
* IPO BUZZ: Minsheng, Sands price HK IPOs, Maxis to debut
* CODELCO-CHINA: Top copper producer, buyer talk premiums
OBAMA YUAN (Obama in China Nov. 15-18, in Seoul Nov. 18-19; PBOC chief speaks Nov. 19)
Currency policy will dominate President Obama's visit to Beijing and public concessions from his hosts are almost unthinkable. The Chinese made clear at the APEC summit they had no intention of losing diplomatic face by appearing to bow to pressure from Washington and their neighbours, forcing the group to delete a reference to "market oriented" currencies from the final statement [ID:nSP43459]. They also don't want to encourage inflows of speculative capital that would force Beijing to tighten policy prematurely. Markets seized on the PBOC report last week that talked of how "major currencies", not just the sliding dollar, would be a consideration in guiding yuan policy. While that was a signal of a return to currency appreciation, not enough has been made of the PBOC's emphasis on the role of capital flows in the same report. PBOC chief Zhou Xiaochuan speaks at a business forum on Thursday. Apart from spot cover of officials dampening market speculation, we'll run a POLL on the yuan's value and prospects for convertibility, as well as an ANALYSIS asking whether markets have gotten ahead of themselves in betting on currency appreciation.
Obama's visit will also put trade tensions -- after several U.S. tariff moves against Chinese-made products -- in the spotlight, as will climate change.
Obama leaves China on Wednesday for South Korea, where the big issues will be North Korean nuclear arms ambitions and the stalled U.S.-South Korea free trade agreement. [nOBAMAASIA] (dayan.candappa@thomsonreuters.com) (john.chalmers@thomsonreuters.com) > MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-Obama goes to Beijing [ID:nLD198238] > Five key Asia political risk themes to watch [ID:nSP4984]
JAPAN ECONOMY (GDP Nov. 16, BOJ review Nov. 19-20)
Is Japan at risk of a double-dip recession that would deepen the fiscal crisis? We'll mine July-September GDP data for answers to that question. Our poll predicts the fastest growth in six quarters (+0.7%). A minority of analysts still expect a recession in Q1. Any signs of the weakness in Q3 would swell their ranks. It would also vindicate the government, which is baulking at spending cuts in the face of growing credit market pressure because it fears the economy will sputter without stimulus. The BOJ, which disagrees with the government, gets to weigh in on the debate after a policy review on Friday. We are also looking for any BOJ comment on the economic impact of rising bond yields. [ID:nECONJP] (dayan.candappa@thomsonreuters.com) > Five world markets themes this week [MKT/THEMES] > Reuters polls and surveys [ID:nL10903477] > Top economic events [M/DIARY]
IPO BUZZ
Another busy week of IPO pricing and debuts in Asia. The region is now the hottest place for companies seeking to raise funds as the Asian recovery accelerates. Are they cramming in before the window shuts? The big supply is keeping a lid on high price hopes and weighing down the market though. We will take a look at who the real winners and losers are -- which banks made most money?
China Minsheng Bank (600016.SS), which hopes to raise up to $4 billion, prices its Honk Kong IPO (Nov. 18). Looking for any signs of investor indigestion or myopia, steering clear of market signs and piling into another Chinese IPO. Las Vegas Sands (LVS.N) prices its highly anticipated IPO for its Macau properties (Nov. 19), after announcing a wide range that could allow it to raise more than $3 billion to help restart its stalled Macau resorts. Plan a PREVIEW (Nov. 17) leading up to the actual pricing [ID:nHKG129668]. Southeast Asia's largest IPO, Maxis (MXSC.KL), will list on the same day (Nov. 19) after pricing at the mid-range of its asking price and raising $3.3 billion from the share offer. We plan to do a PREVIEW of the listing and a NEWSMAKER on Ananda Krishnan, the reclusive billionaire, the day before (Nov. 18). (jean.yoon@thomsonreuters.com) > Company news diary [GLO/EQUITY]
CHINA COPPER
All eyes on the level at which Codelco [CODEL.UL], the world's top copper producer, will finalise term copper premiums with China. The Chilean company raised its term premium for copper to Japan, settling at $75 a tonne for 2010, and at $74 for South Korean buyers, anticipating rising demand in parts of Asia. Traders say Codelco and Chinese buyers will sit down this week to talk about premiums, traditionally $5-10 above those in Japan and South Korea. Codelco President Jose Pablo Arellano told Reuters last week he expects an economic rebound in the United States and Europe to support copper MCU3 demand next year and sees prices in 2010 at above $2 per pound [ID:nN13441855]. Will Chinese buyers accept a sharp rise in premiums? It's an opportunity to take another look at Chinese copper demand, which has been showing signs of bouncing back. We also plan a POLL on the level at which China might be willing to accept a deal. Will also run a FACTBOX on how premiums have fluctuated over the years. (sambit.mohanty@thomsonreuters.com) > Weekahead Americas [WKAHEAD/AM] > Weekahead Europe [WKAHEAD/EM] > Index of Reuters diaries [IND/DIARY] (Editing by Mathew Veedon)
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