FOREX-Dollar on defensive but euro, others lack punch

Fri May 15, 2009 1:59am EDT
 
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* Dollar index .DXY dips, near recent 4-month low

* Euro, Aussie, sterling remain on uptrends vs dollar, yen

* Gain on Wall St sees pick-up in riskier trades

* But market lacks conviction to push them higher in Asia

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, May 15 (Reuters) - The dollar was back on the defensive on Friday, holding close to a four-month low, after a climb in U.S. stocks gave investor confidence a lift and boosted the fortunes of riskier currencies.

The euro, sterling and the Australian dollar held on to gains made on Thursday against the greenback and the yen, keeping within sight of recent highs made as optimism has grown that the worst of the global economic crisis may be over.

But they lacked conviction to push any higher against the dollar, even though stock markets in Asia were on the rise, and traders said the rally had run out of steam for now.

"The dollar still looks soft but people don't want to sell it too aggressively at these kind of levels," said Gerrard Katz, regional head of FX trading at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.

"We've moved a fair bit already so fresh selling is not rushing into the market."

The dollar dipped 0.1 percent against a basket of six major currencies to 82.361 .DXY, holding close to a four-month low on the index set on Wednesday at 81.871.

It has lost 9 percent against the euro since early March, but the European currency is now struggling to break above $1.3740, where resistance from a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its 2008 fall from above $1.60 has blocked its path.

The euro hit a seven-week high at $1.3722 this week, but was 0.1 percent lower on the day at $1.3630 EUR=.

Analysts said euro zone and U.S. data might offer some direction later as investors assess relative economic recovery prospects and monetary policies. The Federal Reserve is engaged in keeping interest rates low by buying government debt but European Central Bank policymakers differ on the scale of asset purchases they should use to support the economy. [ID:nLE355322]

Euro zone gross domestic product data due at 0900 GMT is forecast to show the region's economy shrank 2.0 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months, more than a 1.6 percent fall in the prior quarter.

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