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Record US soy crop means bigger crush, exports in '13/14-USDA
February 22, 2013 / 2:51 PM / in 5 years

Record US soy crop means bigger crush, exports in '13/14-USDA

* Soybean end stocks to double to largest amount in seven
years
    * Soyoil for biodiesel forecast up 6 pct in 2013/14
    * Soyoil exports down 43 pct in 2013/14 on tighter supplies

    WASHINGTON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. soybean crop will be
a record 3.405 billion bushels this year, a dramatic 13 percent
increase from 2012's drought-hit crop that will allow larger
U.S. crushings and exports while rebuilding  stocks, said the
Agriculture Department on Friday.
    At its annual Outlook Forum, USDA forecast end stocks for
2013/14 of 250 million bushels, double the amount expected at
the end of this marketing year and the largest stocks since
2006/07.
    With the larger crop, soybean use was forecast to rise by 3
percent. Crushings would climb to 1.66 billion bushels and
exports to 1.5 billion bushels. Soymeal exports were forecast to
grow by 4 percent on stronger demand in Europe and Southeast
Asia.
    Soyoil exports would plunge by 43 percent, however, to 1.3
billion pounds due to tightening U.S. supplies, allowing Brazil
and Argentina to dominate trade, said USDA.
    Domestic use of soyoil was projected to rise by 0.6 percent
in 2013/14, supported by a higher U.S. target, at 1.28 billion
gallons, for biodiesel use.
    "The use of soybean oil for U.S. biodiesel production is
projected at 5.2 billion lbs - up 300 million from 2012/13,"
said USDA. "At this level, soybean oil accounts for just over
half of expected U.S. biodiesel production."
    Larger use of soyoil for biodiesel would be offset by a 1.5
percent decline in soyoil in food.
    USDA said the record crop would be grown on 77.5 million
acres, matching the record for plantings. The record soybean
crop now is 3.359 billion bushels in 2009.
    Following are USDA's projections for production and use in
the 2013/14 marketing year with comparisons to USDA estimates
for 2011/12 and 2012/13.     
            U.S. soybean production and demand

                       Final  Estimate  Baseline   Update
                     2011/12   2012/13   2013/14  2013/14
 Plant (mln ac)         75.0      77.2      76.0     77.5
 Harvest (mln ac)       73.8      76.1      75.1     76.6
 Yield (bu/ac)          41.9      39.6      44.4     44.5
 Begin stocks            215       169       140      125
 Crop                  3,094     3,015     3,335    3,405
 Imports                  16        20        15       15
 Total supply          3,325     3,204     3,490    3,545
 Crushings             1,703     1,615     1,655    1,660
 Exports               1,362     1,345     1,515    1,500
 Seed                     90        89       N/A       87
 Residual                  1        30       N/A       48
 Seed and residual       N/A       N/A       135      N/A
 Total use             3,155     3,080     3,305    3,295
 End stocks              169       125       185      250
 Avg farm price ($/bu) 12.50     14.30     11.35    10.50

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