* Second-quarter GDP growth estimated at 1.0 percent rate
* Slowdown seen temporary, no impact on Fed policy
* Fiscal policy, inventories and trade main growth drags
* Revisions expected to show firmer growth
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, July 31 U.S. economic growth likely
slowed sharply in the second quarter, but it is poised to regain
momentum as the burden brought on by belt-tightening in
Gross domestic product probably grew at a 1.0 percent annual
rate, a step back from the first-quarter's 1.8 percent pace,
according to a Reuters survey of economists. Some said growth
could be even weaker, with forecasts ranging as low as 0.4
Tighter fiscal policy, a slow pace of inventory accumulation
and sluggish global demand, which has dampened exports, are seen
as having hobbled the economy in the April-June period.
"The economy only had a couple of legs to stand on,
consumers and housing, but conditions are falling into place for
a stronger second half of the year," said Ryan Sweet, a senior
economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.
The Commerce Department will release the second-quarter GDP
report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Wednesday.
If economists' forecasts are proved right, it would mark a
third straight quarter of GDP growth below 2 percent, a pace
that normally would be too soft to bring down unemployment.
But given the backward-looking nature of the GDP report, it
is not likely to have any impact on monetary policy.
Federal Reserve officials, wrestling with a decision on the
future of their $85 billion per month bond-buying program, will
probably nod to the second quarter's weakness when they wind-up
a two-day meeting on Wednesday. But they are also expected to
chalk up much of the weakness to temporary factors, such as the
drag from fiscal policy and a smaller build-up of business
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month that the central
bank was likely to start curtailing the bond purchases later
this year and would probably bring them to a complete halt by
the middle of 2014, if the economy progressed as expected.
"Even with a relatively soft GDP number, the Fed still
appears confident in their outlook and the prospects of the
labor market going forward," said Sam Bullard, a senior
economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North
Carolina. "It looks like they are positioned to make their
announcement, come late this year."
SILVER LINING IN REVISIONS?
While U.S. financial markets have already priced in a weak
second-quarter GDP reading, comprehensive revisions to the data
might present a silver lining for the economy.
The government has implemented some changes in how it
calculates GDP. For example, research and development spending
will now be treated as investment, and defined benefit pension
plans will be measured on an accrual basis, rather than as cash.
Economists say these changes will not only reveal a bigger
economy and a higher rate of saving, but they could lead to an
upward revision of 2012 growth as well.
"There's a distinct possibility that real GDP growth over
the past four quarters will be upgraded," said Maury Harris,
chief economist at UBS in New York.
"In addition, history suggests that the originally published
personal saving rate will be revised up, which would calm some
concerns about under-saving consumers holding back their
Economists said the revisions would probably narrow the gap
between a relatively strong pace of job gains and weak growth, a
misalignment they said the Fed was monitoring.
Higher taxes, as Washington tries to shrink the government's
budget deficit, likely constrained consumer spending in the
second quarter, keeping the economy on an anemic growth pace.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds
of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have slowed to a less
than 2 percent pace after rising at a 2.6 percent rate in the
That could bring the contribution from consumer spending far
below the 1.8 percentage points it added in the first quarter.
With domestic demand tepid, businesses likely tried to keep
their inventories from bulging. Inventory accumulation is
expected to have made only a modest contribution to growth.
Other details of the report are expected to show exports
weighed on the economy as demand weakened in Europe and China.
Trade is expected to have subtracted more than half-a-percentage
point from GDP growth in the second quarter.
Good news is expected from the housing sector, with
double-digit growth forecast for spending on residential
construction. Housing, which triggered the 2007-09 recession, is
growing strongly, helping to keep the economic recovery
Business spending on equipment and software likely continued
a steady march upward, with investment in nonresidential
structures rebounding from a decline in the first quarter.
Government spending, however, is expected to have contracted
for a third straight quarter, largely because of the
across-the-board spending cuts in Washington.