(Adds details, new analyst comments, updates markets)
* Retail sales jump 1.1 percent in March
* Broad-based rise is largest in 1-1/2 years
* "Core" sales accelerate, advance 0.8 percent
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON, April 14 U.S. retail sales recorded
their largest gain in 1-1/2 years in March in a decisive sign
the economy is bouncing back from its weather-induced slumber.
Monday's upbeat report was the latest to indicate growth was
set to accelerate in the second quarter after an unusually cold
and snowy winter hobbled activity early in the year.
"It shows there is an underlying current of strength in the
economy despite the drag from the severe winter weather," said
Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica in Dallas.
The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 1.1
percent last month, the biggest gain since September 2012, with
receipts rising in nearly all categories.
February's increase was raised to 0.7 percent from a
previously reported 0.3 percent. Economists had expected retail
sales, which account for a third of consumer spending, to
advance only 0.8 percent last month.
The data combined with an improvement in quarterly profits
from Citigroup to lift stocks on Wall Street after a sharp
selloff in recent sessions. The dollar rose against a basket of
currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasury debt fell.
The sales figures added to recent employment data in
suggesting the economy found momentum at the end of the first
quarter. Job growth averaged 195,000 per month in February and
March, an improvement over the prior two months, and first-time
applications for unemployment benefits in early April fell back
to their pre-recession level.
These bullish signals have bolstered hopes that growth this
year will be the fastest since the 2007-09 recession ended.
"This is not a fragile economy. The linchpin of economic
growth, the consumer is back and with the consumer's help,
growth will be even faster in 2014," said Chris Rupkey, chief
financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.
A separate report from the New York Fed released on Monday
showed people grew more confident in the labor market last
month, with younger workers in particular seeing a greater
chance of finding work should they lose their current job.
ON SOLID FOOTING
The retail sales data led some economists to bump up
first-quarter GDP growth estimates briefly, before they
scrambled to lower them after a separate Commerce Department
report showed retail inventories, excluding automobiles, rose
only 0.2 percent in February after increasing 0.6 percent in
Businesses accumulated too much stock in the second half of
last year and are placing fewer orders with manufacturers as
they work through the pile of unsold goods.
That has left the inventory to sales ratio at its highest
level since September 2009. But with consumers showing an
appetite to spend, thanks to improving household wealth,
businesses should be able to reduce their bloated stocks.
First-quarter gross domestic product growth estimates now
range as low as a 0.5 percent annual pace. Many economists,
however, expect growth of around a 3 percent rate in the second
quarter and through the rest of the year.
So-called core retail sales, which strip out automobiles,
gasoline, building materials and food services, and which
correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of
the government's GDP report, increased 0.8 percent in March.
February's core sales were revised to show a 0.4 percent
rise instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent gain.
Nevertheless, consumer spending likely slowed sharply in the
first quarter from the fourth quarter's brisk 3.3 percent pace
as core sales fell in January.
Retail sales last month were buoyed by a 3.1 percent surge
in receipts at automobile and parts dealers, the biggest advance
since September 2012. Still, even excluding autos, sales rose
0.7 percent, the biggest increase in a year.
Sales at building materials and garden equipment stores
recorded their largest gain in eight months. The share price of
home improvement chain Lowe's was up about 1 percent on
Monday, outperforming the broader market.
Receipts at electronics and appliance stores, however, fell
as did sales at gasoline stations. Retail sales excluding
gasoline increased a solid 1.4 percent, the biggest advance in
There were gains in sales at furniture, clothing, general
merchandise, health and personal care, food and beverage,
sporting goods, restaurants and nonstore retailers.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)