* State, muni crunch to hit social services, home values
* "Golden triangle" heartland states less hit by housing
* End of federal stimulus creates "cliff effect"
* "Right to work" states can fix problems sooner
By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent
ATLANTA, Nov 9 U.S. state and municipal funding
problems will have a more personal impact on Americans' lives
than the credit crisis and will reduce the value of their
homes, Wall Street analyst Meredith Whitney forecast on
Whitney, who famously predicted the U.S. banking crisis in
2007, also offered insight on possible infrastructure
investment in a "golden triangle" of the American heartland
that was less affected by the U.S. housing crisis.
Examining data from U.S. states over the last three years,
Whitney said she found "these dark pools of information ...
that reminded me very much of what the financial industry
looked like right before the credit crisis."
"Now that the states are under duress, the easiest thing
for them to do is cut aid to municipalities ... cutting
services, considering privatizing, cutting hours for parks and
libraries. This is where it gets personal ... if you have lower
social services, the value of your home is less," she told
participants in the American Water Summit, which attracts those
from water-related global and U.S. concerns.
"This situation ... will be so much more personal than the
credit crisis," she added.
Whitney made her reputation by correctly predicting in 2007
that Citigroup would need a massive capital infusion. Last
year, she said hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S.
municipal bonds would default. She has stood by that statement
even though this gloomy prospect has not yet come to pass.
Noting that the most debt-ridden areas tended to be along
the two U.S. coasts, she described a "golden triangle" of
communities spread across the American heartland in a triangle
with points starting at Utah in the west, North Dakota in the
north and Texas to the south. These areas, she said, didn't
experience much of a housing boom and therefore avoided a
housing bust and were less leveraged than coastal areas.
She said states have depended more on federal funding in
2011 than in any other year, but also said this was the year
when federal stimulus funds expired for many states, creating
what she called a "cliff effect" -- a sudden drop in resources
for states and municipalities.
State spending cannot continue at current levels, which
means some states will sell off assets, cut services and
privatize some functions, such as prisons and roads, according
to Whitney: "You haven't seen anything yet in terms of selling
(state and municipal) assets."
However, some states will have no choice but to invest in
critical infrastructure, she said, and this is where the
potential for investment is greatest.
She said the United States invests 80 percent less in
infrastructure than Europe does in public-private partnerships.
Declines in infrastructure and services depress the value of
U.S. homes, which are many Americans' single biggest asset.
Many of the states in the "golden triangle," she said, are
"right-to-work" states, and many of them are also predominantly
Republican states politically.
Whitney said the contrast between states with obligations
to unions and so-called "right-to-work" states would be a key
issue in pinpointing investment opportunities. "These
(right-to-work states) are the states that can solve their
problems sooner," she said.