* Big U.S. corn crop likely to extend hog farmers’ profit next year
* Cheaper pork prices not expected until 2014
* U.S. hog industry lost an estimated $3 billion last year
* Spread of deadly U.S. pig virus could be wild card in 4th qtr
By Theopolis Waters
CHICAGO, Aug 12 (Reuters) - For the first time in nearly 12 months hog farmers in June turned a profit as high pork prices, the result of consumers needing meat for backyard grills as the summer cookout season gained traction, had meat companies paying more for hogs.
Now, hog farmers are expecting more profit going into the coming year due to a change on the cost side of the business.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture delivered a smaller-than-expected crop forecast on Monday. The data suggests that 2013 still should set a record, which could slash historically high feed costs for an industry that lost an estimated $3 billion last year as the 2012 drought damaged the corn crop and sent feed prices soaring.
Should a long stretch of profitability materialize, some producers will use their money to pay off debts or increase their herds, economists said. But it may take time before they open their checkbooks, to ensure Mother Nature does not introduce some crop-damaging weather before the fall harvest.
Iowa State University’s profitability index showed hog producers in June turned a profit of $10.92 per hog - the first profitable month since July 2012.
Based on an average loss of $31.08 per hog over the 10 months ending in May, University of Missouri economist Ron Plain calculated the U.S. hog industry lost $3 billion. While that is a sizable loss, most producers had enough money saved from previous profitable periods to survive.
With harvest on the horizon, the USDA forecast a corn crop of 13.763 billion bushels, a 28 percent increase from drought-stricken 2012, but 2 percent smaller than traders had expected.
As a result, an increase in hog numbers could moderate prices for pork chops and bacon next year, industry analysts said. The average price of pork at retail in June was a penny shy of the all-time high of $3.56 per lb set in September 2011, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service.
“Hog producers can see the promised land in corn prices that in the next 30 to 60 days are going to come down sharply,” said Purdue University livestock economist Chris Hurt.
Hurt estimates that the total input costs to finish pigs to market weight will drop to about $55 per 100 lbs (cwt) in the fourth quarter of 2013 from about $69 during the second quarter. That $14 drop would be the largest on record, barring any unforeseen weather interruptions, he said.
“But today’s signals suggest they (producers) should begin to get the celebration under way,” said Hurt.
In anticipation of a big fall harvest, the price of corn , the main ingredient in livestock feed, at the Chicago Board of Trade fell 27 percent last month, the biggest monthly loss for the lead contract on a continuous basis since July 1996.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hog futures contract for June 2014, the time when producers will begin sending more hogs to market, has dropped nearly 5 percent since late June. Traders sold with the view of more hogs at lower prices when those animals go to market next year.
Nonetheless, October and December hog futures remain well above last year’s levels. Speculators are betting that the spread of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV), which is fatal to baby pigs, will shrink hog supplies during that time frame.
“These back-month premiums are pretty fat even though grain values have come down precipitously. But we kept a premium in the market partly because of uncertainty with PEDV and how the harvest will pan out,” said Don Roose, an analyst with U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.
Dave Struthers, 46-year-old owner and operator of Struthers Farms Inc in central Iowa, is not ready to strike up the band. He turns out about 3,600 hogs per year on 1,000 acres of land where he also grows corn, soybeans and hay.
Corn from last year’s harvest still hovers above $6 per bushel in parts of the country, and supplies remain tight following the 2012 drought. Grain farmers are holding on to supplies, hoping for a fall rally should harvest be delayed as corn development lags after spring rains stalled planting.
“Guys are doing fairly well in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, but to say we’re going to have cheap corn next fall and next year is a little bit ahead of the game,” Struthers said. “In Iowa, no one’s bragging about how good their crop looks.”
Struthers has enough corn to feed his hogs through the fall with some leftover to sell to local ethanol plants and feedmills. He also offsets fertilizer costs by spraying his crops with nutrient-rich manure from his hogs.
“A lot of other independent guys are doing this as well. We’re hanging in there, but we’re by no means rolling in dough.”