Honduras coup holds few risks for Latin leftists

By Stuart Grudgings - Analysis

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Strong U.S. support for ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has sharply reduced the chances that the military coup there could reignite ideological tensions in Latin America or encourage similar moves against other leftist governments.

But a failure to match the words with action to help restore the leftist to the presidency could hand a propaganda victory to his fellow socialist leaders in Latin America and damage U.S. efforts to rebuild its leadership in the region.

The apparently weak footing of the Honduras coup in the face of a broad regional consensus against it means it is unlikely to spark similar moves in the historically coup-prone region, analysts said.

"This coup is a failure ... because the world has changed and it was clear before they did it that they wouldn't get support from anyone in the hemisphere," said Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research think tank in Washington. "I don't think it will encourage anyone."

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a foe of U.S. trade and foreign policy in Latin America, has threatened military action in Honduras to restore Zelaya and rallied his leftist bloc since the weekend coup, casting the crisis as an attack on democracy by imperialist forces.

U.S. President Barack Obama joined Latin American leaders on Monday in condemning the coup as illegal, marking a contrast to 2002 when Washington went against the regional consensus by initially welcoming a coup attempt against Chavez himself.

'STEALING THE SHOW'

"Part of the reason why the U.S. will come out so strongly against it has to do with the intention of preventing Hugo Chavez from stealing the show," said Kevin Casas-Zamora of the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.

He added, "If Zelaya is put back in power, Chavez won't be able to claim the victory for his Bolivarian revolution," a term inspired by 19th century independence hero Simon Bolivar that Chavez uses to describe his push to remake Venezuela as a socialist nation.

Chavez, who blamed former U.S. President George W. Bush for the 2002 coup in which he was briefly ousted, said he wants a probe into any role the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency may have played in Zelaya's ouster.

The CIA has been involved in toppling past leftist governments in Latin America. The White House has said there was no U.S. role in Zelaya's ouster.

A former soldier who himself once led a failed coup attempt in Venezuela, Chavez knows he has enemies who could be emboldened by a successful overthrow of Zelaya in Honduras.

Chavez has been harsh with new mayors and governors elected last year, stripping them of income and power. Some in Venezuela fear that by humiliating the opposition in that country, Chavez may be increasing the credibility of radical elements who believe in removing him by force.

Evo Morales, the fellow socialist president of Bolivia, has faced unrest and strong opposition from conservative business groups and politicians in his country, and police recently uncovered what Morales described as an assassination plot against him.

Zelaya was detained and sent into exile in a dispute over his push to allow a Honduran president to stay in power longer than that country's constitution allows -- a tactic that other leftist leaders such as Chavez and Morales have also used.