Q+A-What next for Afghanistan's Operation Khanjar?
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By Paul Tait
KABUL, July 5 (Reuters) - U.S. military commanders in the southern Afghan province of Helmand have warned of the calm before the storm as thousands of Marines move with little resistance so far through the Taliban stronghold.
The new assault, Operation Khanjar, or Strike of the Sword, is the first big offensive under U.S. President Barack Obama's new regional strategy to defeat the Taliban and its allies and stabilise Afghanistan. [SP510469]
With the Marines expecting a long, hard fight as they attempt to retake and hold ground from the Taliban -- and plenty of talking with community leaders as well -- here are some questions and answers about how the operation is likely to proceed.
IS THIS THE DECISIVE OPERATION?
It's a start, analysts say.
"Up until now there hasn't been an operation of this kind in Afghanistan," said Sajjan Gohel, a security and intelligence analyst at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.
"The Taliban have become much more competent, much more deadly in recent years, and if the country is going to stand on its own two feet and the Taliban are going to be contained ... then we need this sort of operation."
Others see it as an example being set before a bigger push later in the summer.
The choice of Helmand is interesting. While it is a Taliban stronghold, the insurgency has been fought with more vigour in Khost and Kunar provinces to the east.
This suggests Khanjar is either an example or a feint leading up to bigger operations later. It is also a good place to start the battle for hearts and minds and to gain momentum.
HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? Don't expect quick results because it will likely last for months rather than days or weeks.
"This is not going to be easy. It's going to be long and it's going to be nasty and it's going to result in a lot of casualties on the coalition side," Gohel said.
"It's going to be slow and painstaking if it is going to achieve real results. If they are going to move forward and prevent the Taliban from reclaiming territory, if that's the goal, then the results are not going to be felt for months."
HOW WILL THE TALIBAN RESPOND? Don't expect the Taliban to stand and fight.
Only sporadic resistance has been met so far because the insurgents will likely have pulled back to safer ground and will wait and choose their targets rather than confront the Marines head-on in a fight they cannot hope to win.
They are more likely to employ the tactics they have always used -- suicide attacks, hit-and-run assaults on smaller, more isolated units and on security checkpoints and other government and military infrastructure. Since Thursday, security in the capital Kabul has been tightened with many more checkpoints set up around the city.
WHERE MIGHT THE TALIBAN GO? It's very unlikely the Taliban will just wait around to be mopped up by the Marines in the Helmand River valley. Just 35 km (20 miles) to the east are mountain ranges in Kandahar province that would offer plenty of protection.
The Pakistan-Afghanistan border has always been porous but in Helmand around Garmsir, where most of the fighting has taken place this week, the border is 180 km to the south. Kandahar, Zabul, Paktika, Khost, and Kunar provinces have been the more common infiltration routes between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The insurgents could also go west towards Nimroz and Farah or north to Uruzgan.
WHAT NEXT?
The Marines and other troops have spread out through the valley in an area known as "the fish hook". This leaves one side open, an area to the northwest of the valley around the town of Marja, which is a traditional Taliban stronghold.
One theory is that this is a deliberate ploy to cut them off from their routes to the east and the south and force them west towards Marja in preparation for a decisive action there.
A longer-term strategy is also emerging. In Helmand, company commanders are being ordered to set up "shuras", or community councils, within 24 hours of arriving in towns and villages.
This echoes tactics employed in Iraq by General David Petraeus, who twinned the "surge" there with the growth of local "Awakening Councils", a turning point in the war. (Additional reporting by Luke Baker in LONDON and Robert Birsel in ISLAMABAD; Editing by Jerry Norton)
By Paul Tait
KABUL, July 5 (Reuters) - U.S. military commanders in the southern Afghan province of Helmand have warned of the calm before the storm as thousands of Marines move with little resistance so far through the Taliban stronghold.
The new assault, Operation Khanjar, or Strike of the Sword, is the first big offensive under U.S. President Barack Obama's new regional strategy to defeat the Taliban and its allies and stabilise Afghanistan. [SP510469]
With the Marines expecting a long, hard fight as they attempt to retake and hold ground from the Taliban -- and plenty of talking with community leaders as well -- here are some questions and answers about how the operation is likely to proceed.
IS THIS THE DECISIVE OPERATION?
It's a start, analysts say.
"Up until now there hasn't been an operation of this kind in Afghanistan," said Sajjan Gohel, a security and intelligence analyst at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.
"The Taliban have become much more competent, much more deadly in recent years, and if the country is going to stand on its own two feet and the Taliban are going to be contained ... then we need this sort of operation."
Others see it as an example being set before a bigger push later in the summer.
The choice of Helmand is interesting. While it is a Taliban stronghold, the insurgency has been fought with more vigour in Khost and Kunar provinces to the east.
This suggests Khanjar is either an example or a feint leading up to bigger operations later. It is also a good place to start the battle for hearts and minds and to gain momentum.
HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? Don't expect quick results because it will likely last for months rather than days or weeks.
"This is not going to be easy. It's going to be long and it's going to be nasty and it's going to result in a lot of casualties on the coalition side," Gohel said.
"It's going to be slow and painstaking if it is going to achieve real results. If they are going to move forward and prevent the Taliban from reclaiming territory, if that's the goal, then the results are not going to be felt for months."
HOW WILL THE TALIBAN RESPOND? Don't expect the Taliban to stand and fight.
Only sporadic resistance has been met so far because the insurgents will likely have pulled back to safer ground and will wait and choose their targets rather than confront the Marines head-on in a fight they cannot hope to win.
They are more likely to employ the tactics they have always used -- suicide attacks, hit-and-run assaults on smaller, more isolated units and on security checkpoints and other government and military infrastructure. Since Thursday, security in the capital Kabul has been tightened with many more checkpoints set up around the city.
WHERE MIGHT THE TALIBAN GO? It's very unlikely the Taliban will just wait around to be mopped up by the Marines in the Helmand River valley. Just 35 km (20 miles) to the east are mountain ranges in Kandahar province that would offer plenty of protection.
The Pakistan-Afghanistan border has always been porous but in Helmand around Garmsir, where most of the fighting has taken place this week, the border is 180 km to the south. Kandahar, Zabul, Paktika, Khost, and Kunar provinces have been the more common infiltration routes between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The insurgents could also go west towards Nimroz and Farah or north to Uruzgan.
WHAT NEXT?
The Marines and other troops have spread out through the valley in an area known as "the fish hook". This leaves one side open, an area to the northwest of the valley around the town of Marja, which is a traditional Taliban stronghold.
One theory is that this is a deliberate ploy to cut them off from their routes to the east and the south and force them west towards Marja in preparation for a decisive action there.
A longer-term strategy is also emerging. In Helmand, company commanders are being ordered to set up "shuras", or community councils, within 24 hours of arriving in towns and villages.
This echoes tactics employed in Iraq by General David Petraeus, who twinned the "surge" there with the growth of local "Awakening Councils", a turning point in the war. (Additional reporting by Luke Baker in LONDON and Robert Birsel in ISLAMABAD; Editing by Jerry Norton)
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