West lowers sights in Afghanistan as war drags on

By Jon Hemming - Analysis

KABUL (Reuters) - Western leaders are reawakening to the reality of Afghanistan -- that it is famously unforgiving to foreign forces on its soil and claiming victory there depends on how you measure success.

There is now a gloomy chorus of acknowledgements that Taliban militants are spreading their influence, the government of President Hamid Karzai is ineffectual and corrupt and Western military efforts are disjointed and inadequately resourced.

A top U.N. envoy says attacks are at a six-year high and the senior Western military figure in Afghanistan has said his 64,000-strong force cannot protect 30 million Afghans, who face a rising tide of intimidation and brutal attacks.

Charges that the challenges are at their most severe since U.S.-led and Afghan forces toppled the Taliban in 2001 are being countered by warnings that despair will only hearten insurgents with the stomach for a long war that Western democracies lack.

Amid the woe, two elements stand out afresh -- Western ambitions for Afghanistan's future are shrinking, and there is less dispute over the measures needed to succeed than there is over the political will to fund and implement them.

"The situation is quite difficult and verging on dire," said Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution. "(It's) not as severe as Iraq once was, but I'd say we're closer to losing than winning right now, given the trajectory we're on."

Outright defeat of the Taliban is no longer the goal. Nor do diplomats envisage a perfect democracy emerging from the rubble of three decades of war. The West will settle for military stability, sovereignty, sane government and a squeeze on drugs.

When a departing British commander said the war against the Taliban cannot be won, his remarks were dismissed as defeatist by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates. But Gates later said reconciliation with the Taliban was needed to end the conflict.

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Policymakers are frustrated the Taliban were allowed to recover and relaunch their insurgency in 2005, and fearful that Western forces will get bogged down and chewed up in Afghanistan as British and Soviet forces were in the 19th and 20th centuries.

U.S. ground commander General David McKiernan has asked for 15,000 more American forces to add to 8,000 being sent next year to bolster his fighting strength. But European allies have been slow to increase their presence and fill equipment needs.

"We do need more resources applied by the international community here, not just military resources, but economic aid, social programs and government mentorship," McKiernan told Reuters in an interview.

Experts agree that extra forces alone are not the answer. Breaking the downward spiral requires a combination of bolstering and reforming the government, tangible improvements in living standards for desperately poor Afghans and anti-drugs efforts.

None of these are easy or quick, and the egregious and stubborn narcotics-fueled corruption of Karzai's government is just one of many tests of the tolerance and patience of aid donors.

"Progress is very uneven, it's very slow. We are in a tough fight, it is going to take a long time," said McKiernan.