Q+A: What next for Afghanistan's Operation Khanjar?

By Paul Tait

KABUL (Reuters) - U.S. military commanders in the southern Afghan province of Helmand have warned of the calm before the storm as thousands of Marines move with little resistance so far through the Taliban stronghold.

The new assault, Operation Khanjar, or Strike of the Sword, is the first big offensive under U.S. President Barack Obama's new regional strategy to defeat the Taliban and its allies and stabilize Afghanistan.

With the Marines expecting a long, hard fight as they attempt to retake and hold ground from the Taliban -- and plenty of talking with community leaders as well -- here are some questions and answers about how the operation is likely to proceed.

IS THIS THE DECISIVE OPERATION?

It's a start, analysts say.

"Up until now there hasn't been an operation of this kind in Afghanistan," said Sajjan Gohel, a security and intelligence analyst at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.

"The Taliban have become much more competent, much more deadly in recent years, and if the country is going to stand on its own two feet and the Taliban are going to be contained ... then we need this sort of operation."

Others see it as an example being set before a bigger push later in the summer.

The choice of Helmand is interesting. While it is a Taliban stronghold, the insurgency has been fought with more vigor in Khost and Kunar provinces to the east.

This suggests Khanjar is either an example or a feint leading up to bigger operations later. It is also a good place to start the battle for hearts and minds and to gain momentum.

HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? Don't expect quick results because it will likely last for months rather than days or weeks.

"This is not going to be easy. It's going to be long and it's going to be nasty and it's going to result in a lot of casualties on the coalition side," Gohel said.

"It's going to be slow and painstaking if it is going to achieve real results. If they are going to move forward and prevent the Taliban from reclaiming territory, if that's the goal, then the results are not going to be felt for months."

HOW WILL THE TALIBAN RESPOND? Don't expect the Taliban to stand and fight.

Only sporadic resistance has been met so far because the insurgents will likely have pulled back to safer ground and will wait and choose their targets rather than confront the Marines head-on in a fight they cannot hope to win.