Palestinian vote, Abbas threat might be a bluff

By Mohammed Assadi and Douglas Hamilton

RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters) - Voter registration for a Palestinian election failed to get under way as scheduled on Tuesday, adding to signs that President Mahmoud Abbas might be bluffing about a make-or-break vote in January.

If that turned out to be the case, he may also be bluffing about quitting the presidency. His real aims may be to repair badly damaged Palestinian unity and to bolster American support for his position in peace talks with Israel.

But if it is no bluff, efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict will enter uncharted waters. The election will split the Palestinian movement and at the same time remove from the scene the man the West counts on as peace-maker with Israel.

Abbas called the election last month in line with the constitution, while knowing it would probably be rejected by his Islamist rivals Hamas, who rule Gaza.

Analysts saw a gamble, that Hamas would balk at formalizing the split and finally agree to a "reconciliation" pact.

Last week, citing disillusionment with the faltering peace process and what he believes is Washington's failure to back legitimate Palestinian demands, Abbas announced he personally did not plan to seek re-election on January 24.

Tuesday was supposed to see the start of a five-day process of registering an estimated 260,000 young Palestinians who have reached voting age since the last election in 2006.

But none of 1,000 registration centres in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip was open to take names. The independent Palestinian Central Election Commission (CEC), which organized ballots in 1996, 2005 and 2006, had no comment on the delay.

Along with an absence of political posters, billboards, or banners for the parliamentary and presidential race, a total lack of campaign excitement was another sign that the election date may be a political fiction.

"These are all indications that the elections will not take place on the 24th," a Western diplomat said.

Officials were already talking of alternative scenarios.

"The CEC will tell the president in a week from now whether they can do it or not," said Nabil Abu Rdainah, a top aide to Abbas. If not, he said, Abbas would look into "other options."

There was no indication what these might include, but one alternative is that Abbas stays on in power.

VOTE WOULD FORMALISE SPLIT

Abbas is disappointed that U.S. President Barack Obama is "favoring" Israel by dropping his insistence that it freeze all building of settlements on occupied West Bank territory before suspended peace talks are relaunched.