Oscar favorites should keep eye on rearview mirror

By Gregg Kilday

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - If this political season has proved anything, it's that it doesn't pay to be labeled a front-runner. Just ask Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton.

But front-runners do serve one purpose: They set the stage for upsets.

That's the position that the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" finds itself in as the countdown to the February 24 Academy Awards ticks away. Academy members have until 5 p.m. Tuesday to turn in their ballots to PricewaterhouseCoopers, but most voters have already mailed theirs. While a final round of awards dinners this weekend will offer a few more indications of which way the winds are blowing, they won't influence the final Oscar outcome.

Since it debuted at the Cannes Film Festival in May, "No Country" has slowly but steadily been building a constituency. An immediate critical favorite, it surprisingly didn't win any prizes at Cannes, though it did secure a prime spot as the centerpiece film at the New York Film Festival in October.

Miramax, which co-financed "No Country" with Paramount Vantage, carefully nurtured its rollout throughout the fall. Initially, some questioned whether Hollywood would embrace the movie. The issue wasn't its violence -- after all, the Academy bestowed its previous best picture Oscar on the equally bloody "The Departed." It was more a question of whether Hollywood would fall in love with a movie that is so deeply despairing.

The answer, so far, is yes. "No Country" has picked up kudos from the guilds representing Hollywood's directors, writers and producers, as well as the Screen Actors Guild's ensemble acting trophy. It did lose to "Atonement" at the BAFTAs, but chalk that up to the British feature's home-town advantage.

The established front-runner for both best picture and best director, "No Country's" halo affect also is expected to surround Javier Bardem in his quest for best supporting actor honors. But that's a category in which upsets frequently occur, as happened last year when Alan Arkin took the prize most expected would go to Eddie Murphy.

Acting-wise, Daniel Day-Lewis is favored to take home best actor. He already has claimed Globe, SAG and BAFTA awards for his ferocious performance as Daniel Plainview in "There Will Be Blood." With eight nominations each, "Blood" is going head-to-head with "No Country" in six categories, with best actor the slot where Paul Thomas Anderson's movie is most likely to get major recognition.