FACTBOX: Thailand's political crisis -- what happens next?

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thousands of protesters have been occupying Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's official compound since August 26, vowing to remain until he and his elected government fall.

Samak has repeatedly said he will not bow to the demands of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the protest group that he dismisses as an illegal mob.

Following are some scenarios for what might happen next, although none of the outcomes is likely to heal the fundamental rift in Thai society between the rural and urban poor who support Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a 2006 coup, and the Bangkok middle classes who despise him.

The stock market has fallen about 23 percent since the street protests began in May and wobbled at times last week when violence spiked, although overseas influences such as the health of the U.S. export market have also been factors.

Thailand's currency, the baht hit a nine-month low against the dollar last week and continuing uncertainty is likely to hold it down.

SAMAK CALLS SNAP ELECTION

- Samak dissolves parliament to call a snap election in the hope it will take the wind out of the PAD's sails.

But, with Samak's People Power Party, a replacement for Thaksin's disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, almost certain to win and lead the next government, the PAD would be unlikely to give up its campaign.

Parliament will debate and probably pass a new national budget next week, replenishing government coffers for election goodies.

SAMAK IMPOSES EMERGENCY RULE

- Samak declares a state of emergency to enlist the help of the military in clearing the tens of thousands of protesters from the seat of government.

Still haunted by a public backlash at their bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 1992, it is far from certain that the military would follow orders.

MILITARY LAUNCHES A COUP

- With the second anniversary of the coup against Thaksin looming on September 19, army chief Anupong Paochinda has stressed that another putsch would resolve none of Thailand's underlying political problems.

However, if tensions escalate and people get hurt or killed, the army may feel justified in intervening, citing the need for national reconciliation, and forcing the government from power.

It is far from clear what sort of government would emerge.