FACTBOX - Possible scenarios for North Korea after Kim Jong-il

(Reuters) - Speculation about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il raises questions about who would lead the country after Kim, 66, leaves the scene. Kim missed his country's anniversary parade on Tuesday and a U.S. intelligence official said he may have suffered a stroke

Following are some scenarios presented by U.S. experts, who caution that no one knows who will lead a post-Kim North Korea or even whether that state can survive Kim's demise:

* DYNASTIC SUCCESSION - North Korea could follow the pattern by which Kim Jong-il took over from his father and state founder Kim Il-sung in 1994 and name one of three sons as successor. Kim Jong-nam, 37, and his half-brothers Kim Jong-chol, 26, and Kim Jong-eun, born in 1983, have undergone elite education in North Korea and in Europe. But unlike their father, none have been identified as dynastic successor nor undergone decades of grooming in political posts. Jang Song-taek, the 62-year-old husband of Kim Jong-il's sister, has also been mentioned as a possible successor or caretaker.

* MILITARY RULE - Kim Jong-il ruled as chairman of the National Defence Commission and its million-man Korean People's Army, as well as head of the communist Korea Workers Party. Kim's 14 years of rule saw a pronounced shift in power to the military under Kim's "Songun" (military-first) doctrine. The military is considered hard-line toward the outside world, but also riven along generational lines and divided by factions with loyalties to one or another of Kim's sons.

* COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP - One of Kim's three sons, Jang or No. 2 leader Kim Yong-nam, 80, could become the figurehead leader of a collective leadership drawn from the Korea Workers Party, the National Defense Commission, or a coalition from those groups which have a vested interest in maintaining the North Korean system.

* ABSORPTION BY SOUTH KOREA - North Korea's economy functions only with the help of outside aid, mostly from historic rival South Korea. Some analysts suggest that North Korea under any successor to Kim Jong-il will lack legitimacy as a state and collapse or seek incorporation into South Korea, which is twice as populous and many times more wealthy. South Korea has been wary of taking on the financial burden of a failed North Korean collapse and sought to stave off collapse with economic aid and investment.

(Reporting by Paul Eckert; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)