Rafsanjani's future at stake in Iran turmoil

By Parisa Hafezi - Analysis

TEHRAN (Reuters) - If Iran's hardline leadership wants to calm turmoil over a disputed presidential election, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani might be the man to broker a solution that would preserve the Islamic Republic he helped to found.

But if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opts to crush all opposition to the re-election of his fiery protege, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani may need all the influence and political skills he has accumulated since the 1979 revolution to survive.

The resilient 75-year-old cleric, now on tense terms with Khamenei -- the man he helped to the pinnacle of power after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died in 1989 -- has fallen mysteriously silent since the June 12 election.

He provided strong, if backseat, support for the campaign of moderate former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, who says he was defrauded of victory in the presidential poll.

Rafsanjani has made no public statement since, prompting rumors that have him variously trying to mediate a compromise, orchestrating protests or even preparing a challenge to Khamenei via a powerful constitutional body of clerics that he chairs.

"For all this talk of stuff going on behind the scenes, I'm not seeing anything," said Anoush Ehteshami, an Iran expert at Durham University in England. "That means he has been unable to make any progress on whatever agenda he was pursuing."

So far Khamenei has shown a steely resolve, upholding the election, endorsing Ahmadinejad and authorizing the use of riot police and religious militia to quell mass demonstrations.

Iran's top legislative body, the Guardian Council, declared the election the "healthiest" since the revolution and a hardline cleric demanded on Friday that "rioters" be executed.

Mousavi and some reformist leaders have remained defiant, by extension questioning Khamenei's authority and opening an unprecedented fissure in an Islamic system in which the Supreme Leader's word is supposed to be final and obeyed.

Such defiance could bring retribution in special courts being set up to deal with troublemakers, Ehteshami said.

"They can bring Rafsanjani in for fomenting instability and challenging the Leader," he said. "If they do that to Mousavi, then all of them will be vulnerable."

ARCHITECT OF ISLAMIC REPUBLIC

Baqer Moin, a biographer of Khomeini, said Rafsanjani was concerned not just about his political survival, but about the destiny of the Islamic Republic of which he was an architect.

"He doesn't want it to be 'ruined' by these hardliners. He thinks they have influenced Khamenei," the London-based expert added. "Of course he himself would be a victim if they succeed."

Rafsanjani is striving behind closed doors for a solution, several Iranian analysts said. "His main goal is to preserve legitimacy of the establishment, which has been harmed by the election row," said one analyst, who asked not to be named.