SCENARIOS: Possible outcomes of Honduran political crisis

Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:58pm EDT
 
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TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) - Honduras was rocked by its worst political crisis in decades and internationally isolated after the army ousted leftist President Manuel Zelaya and former Congress head Roberto Micheletti was named interim president.

Sunday's dawn ouster came after Zelaya angered the courts, Congress and the military with his push to extend presidential terms.

Following are possible scenarios on what could develop:

MICHELETTI STAYS IN POWER UNTIL AFTER NOV. ELECTIONS

Micheletti's supporters, from the political and business elite to the army and courts, are intent on him retaining control though a November 29 presidential election and into January when the poll winner is due to take power.

This could happen if the small street protests over the coup wilt and the United States and other countries believe they have few options other than sanctions or cutting economic aid, which so far Washington has held off from doing.

Zelaya's popularity ratings had dropped to around 30 percent in recent polls, as many disliked his shift to the left under the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Protests on the streets of Honduras against his ouster have only numbered up to a couple of thousand people.

It would be much easier for foreign countries to demand Micheletti stand down if he were an army general, but counting in his favor, Micheletti is a civilian veteran of Zelaya's Liberal Party and he was chosen on Sunday by a near-unanimous Congress vote.

Micheletti, who has already told foreign countries not to interfere in Honduras, could take a swing to the right and crush opponents.

HONDURAS BOWS TO FOREIGN PRESSURE AND REINSTATES ZELAYA

The military coup has left Honduras completely isolated and condemnation of the operation has been fierce from Chavez and other left-wing governments to the United States, the European Union and international bodies.

The Honduran courts and military will be loath to back down but there is a chance that intense and prolonged international pressure will force them to do so.

So far, no foreign government has said it will recognize Micheletti as president, and the Organization of American States is demanding Zelaya be immediately and unconditionally reinstated.

President Barack Obama, who is being tested with his first big crisis in a region that Washington has historically interfered in heavily, said on Monday it would be a "terrible precedent" if the coup were not reversed.

But the fact that many politicians from Zelaya's Liberal Party came out against him in recent weeks, opposing his push for constitutional change, weighs against his chances of a comeback.

MODERATE LEFTISTS NEGOTIATE EARLY ELECTION  Continued...

 

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