SCENARIOS: Tension in China's restive Xinjiang

By Ben Blanchard

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese President Hu Jintao abandoned plans to attend a G8 summit in Italy on Wednesday, returning home early to deal with ethnic violence that has left at least 156 dead in China's northwestern region of Xinjiang.

More than 1,000 people have been injured and 1,434 arrested in unrest between Han Chinese and Muslim Uighurs since Sunday in Urumqi, capital of the energy-rich region which borders Central Asia and Pakistan.

Here are some scenarios at how current tensions may play out:

WILL UNREST SPREAD TO REST OF XINJIANG?

- Demonstrations and even rioting could break out in other parts of the vast region, especially in areas which are heavily populated by minority Muslim Uighurs. Urumqi, by contrast, has a very large Han Chinese population.

Chinese state media have already reported on protests in the old Silk Road city of Kashgar and exile groups say other cities have also been affected, though those reports are hard to verify.

- But after the violence in Urumqi, Chinese security forces will rush in reinforcements to all parts of Xinjiang to try to nip any new protests in the bud, making a repetition of Sunday's riots unlikely though not impossible.

WILL MILITANTS MOUNT TERROR ATTACKS?

- Militants accused by Beijing of using terror to seek an independent state called East Turkestan could mount bombing or shooting attacks.

Xinjiang has been hit by numerous bombings and shootings over the years, including attacks in the region before and during last year's Beijing Olympics, so attacks are possible.

Chinese missions in the Netherlands and Germany have been attacked by unidentified men.

Some analysts and rights groups question the level of organization and threat posed by these groups, saying they are not as fearsome as China makes out.

- Any terror attacks would meet with not only public outrage, which the government may find hard to control, but also an even tighter security clampdown against Uighurs. That would generate yet more Uighur resentment, and so the cycle of enmity, hate and suspicion would start again.

WILL XINJIANG'S ECONOMY DIVE?

- Tourism, especially domestic, will take a hit. Travel agents have already reported a collapse in demand. But the government will probably step in to pump-prime the economy, part of an existing policy to bring wealth to the region partially in the hopes of trying to win over the local people.