Iran vote is mixed blessing for Ahmadinejad

By Edmund Blair - Analysis

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's newly elected parliament is packed with conservatives, but hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not assured of an easy ride in the run-up to next year's presidential race.

His re-election chances look bright judging by the unusually outspoken support he has won from Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for his truculent nuclear stance.

But Ahmadinejad, 51, has powerful rivals inside the broad conservative camp that swept to victory in Friday's election. They are likely to seize on popular discontent with the economy and roaring inflation to serve their own presidential ambitions.

The outcome, however, will not have a direct impact on nuclear, oil and foreign policies, which all ultimately rest in the hands of Khamenei, not the president or parliament, under the Islamic Republic's system of clerical rule.

"I don't think the system would withdraw support from Ahmadinejad, but you have to expect strong competition among conservatives for the presidential election. That means a lot of conflict between the president and parliament," said Majid Zamani, a conservative commentator.

"This election is not going to help Ahmadinejad," he added.

Conservatives, who will dominate the new parliament, share with Ahmadinejad the label of "principlists" for their loyalty to the Islamic Republic's ideals. But they are not united and some analysts say the president's core support has shrunk.

Some conservatives have criticized the president's economic policies, blamed for pushing inflation up to 19 percent.

A few, like former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani who won a seat in Iran's clerical city of Qom, have also queried whether his verbally combative style is helping Tehran's nuclear case at the U.N. Security Council, which passed three sets of sanctions.

The West fears Iran wants atomic bombs. Tehran denies this.

GAINING MOMENTUM

Final results of the election have yet to be announced, but the shape of the new parliament is clear.

More moderate conservatives may even team up with Ahmadinejad's staunch reformist opponents, who have retained 40 or so seats in the 290-seat assembly although many of their candidates were barred from the race.

"You could have some conservatives making a coalition with the reformists and making it difficult for the president to pass his bills," said an Iranian analyst who asked not to be named.

Even in the outgoing parliament, controlled by a faction that mostly backed Ahmadinejad's 2005 presidential campaign, criticism mounted when he used bulldozer tactics like scrapping a nationwide budget body to secure more control of spending.