U.S. attack on Iran may "open Pandora's box"

By Fredrik Dahl - Analysis

TEHRAN (Reuters) - The United States could unleash vastly superior firepower if it attacked Iran but Tehran could strike back against its forces in Iraq and threaten oil supplies crucial to the world economy.

Speculation is growing that President George W. Bush could launch military action before he leaves office in January 2009 even though Washington says it is committed to resolving the crisis over Iran's disputed atomic ambitions diplomatically.

"It should be a walkover militarily," said London-based defense analyst Andrew Brookes about any U.S. attempt to knock out the Islamic Republic's atomic installations.

"The hard bit is what comes afterwards and that is opening Pandora's box," said Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank.

Western powers suspect Iran is seeking to build atom bombs. Iran says its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity so that it can export more of its oil and gas.

A former Iranian official with links to the country's highest authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggested Tehran would respond by using allies in the region to take the fight elsewhere in the Middle East.

"If they want to play games with us, I believe in a few ways we can turn Iraq into a fiery battlefield," he said.

"GRIEF"

Security experts voiced different opinions about the strength of Iran's armed forces in a showdown with the United States, which they believe would involve a U.S. air campaign but not an invasion by ground forces.

The military, under an arms embargo imposed by Washington, still partly relies on fighter aircraft and hardware bought before the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed shah, topped up with domestically produced equipment as well as imports from Russia and others.

A Western diplomat said Iranian leaders were confident U.S. aerial bombardment would not threaten their hold on power.

"A bombing campaign has never removed a government and especially not in a country like this when there is no organized opposition," the Tehran-based diplomat said.

Iran's confidence has grown as it watched America's failure to get a grip on Iraq despite its overwhelming military supremacy.

Iran says it has missiles that could hit Israel and other state of the art weaponry and that the West would regret any attack, warning of a "quagmire deeper than Iraq."

Such statements may be exaggerated and aimed at a domestic audience, but some analysts say Iran could retaliate by, for example, using speed boats to launch guerrilla-style hit-and-run attacks on oil shipping, so-called "asymmetric" warfare.