India's left issues blunt threat over nuclear deal

By Kamil Zaheer

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Indian communists said on Thursday they would stop supporting the government if it pursued a nuclear deal with the United States, their most blunt threat in a month-old political crisis that has shaken the coalition.

The comments by Prakash Karat, head of the largest of the four left parties that shore up Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government, made it more likely that Singh's government would not last its entire five-year term, analysts said.

With Singh unlikely to back down over the nuclear deal, he may have to choose between continuing in power as head of a minority government or calling elections before his term ends in May 2009.

"We won't be there to help this government conclude this agreement," said Prakash Karat, the chief of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M). "That's final."

The communists, who have 60 MPs in the 545-member lower house of parliament, had in the past warned the government of "serious consequences" if it went ahead with the deal, without spelling out what those consequences could be.

The pact -- seen as a sign of booming economic and strategic ties between the two powerful democracies -- allows India to import U.S. nuclear fuel and reactors, despite having tested nuclear weapons and not signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The left says the deal undermines India's independent foreign policy and draws New Delhi into a strategic alliance with Washington.

"ELECTIONS INEVITABLE"

In order to get the pact working on the ground, New Delhi needs to conclude India-specific safeguards for its civilian reactors with the International Atomic Energy Agency and also get the backing of the Nuclear Suppliers Group of nations.

Besides, the U.S. Congress also needs to approve it again.

Karat said the government must not go ahead with talks with the IAEA if it wants the communists to continue support.

"Don't go. Wait for some time. Listen to our objections. Examine these objections. Let parliament opine on it," he told a seminar on the deal. "But they have not so far agreed.

"This is not a normal matter of differences between us. The question is, why this determination to go ahead despite the fact that the main parties on which the government depends on for its majority say no."

The government and communists have set up a panel meant to resolve differences over the deal, but Karat's comments show that finding common ground will be extremely difficult.

"Each side is playing its cards in the expectation that the other would not press the matter to the point of an immediate election," political analyst Pran Chopra said.