Iran vote expected to test president's popularity

By Edmund Blair

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Politicians launched their campaigns on Thursday for Iran's March 14 parliamentary election which is expected to provide a gauge of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chances for re-election next year.

The election to the 290-seat assembly, dominated by hardline conservatives who swept to power in the 2004 vote and went on to back Ahmadinejad's winning presidential bid the next year, will not directly affect foreign, oil or other major policies.

But the president's economic management, blamed for 19 percent inflation, has prompted many of his allies to become critical, even if analysts say members of parliament backed the spending policies that largely caused the price rises.

"Together, we will choose well, we will live well," said a banner for the conservative Islamic Coalition Party put up in a major square in Tehran.

"Say tomorrow is ours," said a banner for Shahabeddin Sadr, who backs Ahmadinejad, the words echoing an Iranian pop song.

MPs seeking re-election have defended their performance and vowed to curb surging prices, one of the biggest grumbles for most voters in the world's fourth largest oil producer.

"If our friends who have become candidates ... are able to enter parliament with your votes, we will try to decrease the pressure of high prices and inflation on poor people," Parliament Speaker Gholamali Haddadadel told a campaign meeting.

Haddadadel is the top candidate of the United Front, the biggest conservative coalition that is expected to dominate the race. It includes both supporters and opponents of Ahmadinejad but is widely seen as the most pro-government coalition running.

BARRED FROM RUNNING

Reformists who seek political and social change were planning a comeback, building on a modest recovery in the 2006 municipal elections. But, as in other votes, many of their candidates were barred from running during the vetting process.

"Join us, our pain will not be healed on our own," a reformist banner wrote on Vali-ye Asr, a tree-lined boulevard that runs through Tehran.

The Guardian Council, controlled by the conservative establishment, vets candidates based on criteria such as commitment to Islam and Islamic revolutionary principles. About 4,500 people have been qualified to run out of 7,600 who applied.

Reformists say they will only be able to contest about 30 percent of parliament's seats as a result of the screening.

Even if the Front wins the most seats, Ahmadinejad cannot expect an easy ride, partly because different factions and personalities within the Front are likely to start jockeying for position before the 2009 presidential race.

"There is room for very strong challenges from 'principle-ists' for the next election. This (vote) is a lot about the next presidential election," said one politician, barred from the running by a pre-election screening process.