Showdown looms for Musharraf after Pakistan votes

By Simon Cameron-Moore - Analysis

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistanis vote in an election on Monday that could bring about the downfall of President Pervez Musharraf if it returns a hostile parliament with a prime minister who wants to be his own man.

While it's not a presidential election there's no doubting what the main issue is.

"It is President Pervez Musharraf," said Ijaz Shafi Gilani, chairman of Gallup Pakistan, whose survey released on Thursday showed almost two-thirds of Pakistanis have had enough of the 64-year-old ex-commando leading their nuclear-armed country.

U.S. ally Musharraf is used to prime ministers doing his bidding since he came to power as a general in coup in 1999, and he behaves like Pakistan's chief executive.

He got himself re-elected while still army chief by a pliant parliament before it was dissolved, and then in November invoked emergency powers for six weeks to remove judges who might have ruled it unconstitutional.

The next prime minister has to choose whether to play second fiddle to him and the parliament cannot duck the issue of the constitutionality of Musharraf's presidency, Gilani said.

An expected low turnout, and possible rigging could help Musharraf ride out the storm. But if any rigging is overdone it would risk sparking agitation that could precipitate his end.

If the vote isn't rejected, everything hinges on what the party of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto opts to do if, as expected, it emerges as the largest party in 342-seat National Assembly and gets a chance to lead the next coalition.

Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), now led by her widower Asif Ali Zardari must choose between negotiating a working arrangement with Musharraf, or confrontation, which is what most PPP voters want to see, according to Gilani.

Najam Sethi, editor of the Daily Times and a top political analyst, believed PPP won't make Musharraf's ouster its priority.

"I don't think they would risk getting into another fight so soon after coming into power unless, of course, Musharraf makes life very difficult for them," Sethi said. "If they're pushed to the wall they will, but as a first option, I don't think so."

Musharraf's survival will be unpopular with Pakistanis fed up with rising food prices and the human cost of a war against Islamist militants that many think is America's not Pakistan's.

People are angry over Musharraf's authoritarian responses to challenges over the past year, and they distrust the official account of Bhutto's murder, blaming militants for her assassination on December 27.

Nawaz Sharif, the premier Musharraf overthrew and leader of the other main opposition party, wants Musharraf brought down.

Gilani believes Zardari's position within PPP will come under pressure if he ignores voters' wishes by working with Musharraf.