FACTBOX: Pakistan's political prospects

Mon Sep 1, 2008 12:29am EDT
 
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ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan's political parties are jockeying for position ahead of a September 6 presidential election and after the ruling coalition split, worrying investors and allies concerned about the economy and militant violence.

Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif pulled his party out of the ruling coalition on August 25 over disputes with his main partner over the judiciary and who should be the next president.

The split came a week after the coalition celebrated the resignation of Pervez Musharraf as president.

The coalition is headed by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, which has nominated its leader and Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, to replace Musharraf as president.

Following are some implications of the latest developments.

BATTLE OVER THE PRESIDENCY

* The voting in the presidential election on September 6 will be by members of the country's four provincial assemblies and the two-chamber national parliament.

* Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party is fielding a former chief justice, Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, while the party that backed Musharraf put forward top party official Mushahid Hussain Sayed. Zardari looks likely to win.

* Sharif wants to make the presidency a ceremonial post after it became a seat of executive strength under Musharraf by stripping the office of powers, in particular to dismiss parliament. The PPP has been coy about whether and when it would agree to reduce the presidency's authority.

* The stance of Sharif and his party is likely to win popular points with those who saw the presidency's powers as enabling Musharraf's strongman rule.

BATTLE OVER JUDGES

* The PPP has so far been reluctant to quickly restore all the judges deposed by Musharraf, partly because of concern the former chief justice might take up challenges to an amnesty granted to Zardari and other party leaders from graft charges last year, analysts say.

* Before Musharraf sacked the judges, notably the chief justice, were also quite willing to challenge his government on the legality of various decisions, a tendency the PPP may not view with enthusiasm now that it effectively controls government.

* Twelve of the scores of judges deposed were restored to the bench last week, Zardari has indicated the PPP would move to reinstate more after the presidential election. The chief justice, who critics say has been politicized, is not expected to be among them. Zardari will be immune from any prosecution if he becomes president.

* Lawyers held street protests on Thursday to press for the restoration of all deposed judges, and say there will be more actions to come. However, the lawyers do not want the judges to take their swearing-in oaths as now worded because they fear it legitimizes a Musharraf-backed constitution they say was illegal.

GENERAL ELECTION SCENARIOS  Continued...

 

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