Kremlin hawks pushing Georgia conflict: diplomats

By Michael Stott - Analysis

TBILISI (Reuters) - Moscow's sabre-rattling over two disputed regions of Georgia is driven by Kremlin hardliners who want to push Russia's next president into an anti-Western stance, diplomats in both countries said.

Tension has risen sharply in the volatile South Caucasus since Russia forged closer links with the separatist governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, sent more peacekeeping troops to Abkhazia and threatened to use force if Georgia attacks.

Diplomats in Moscow and Tbilisi note the latest spats came during a political lull in Russia before the inauguration next week of Dmitry Medvedev as president.

They regard Medvedev, a lawyer with no links to the security services, as potentially a more Western-friendly leader than his predecessor Vladimir Putin but they say he would face strong resistance from hardliners if he attempted policy changes.

Medvedev has yet to give clear signals about the line he will take on Georgia but facts are already being created on the ground ahead of him taking power on May 7.

"Many independent analysts believe the military and the FSB (domestic intelligence service) are running Russia's policy in the Caucasus right now," one diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The West has sided firmly with Georgia in the dispute, expressing concern about Moscow's troop build-up and criticizing its decision to pursue closer ties with the separatists.

This suits the hardliners in Moscow, who distrust the West. They want to see a strong nationalist Russia re-asserting itself and winning respect through power, as in Soviet times.

Russia has started deploying 1,200 additional troops to Abkhazia, an impoverished coastal province which was once the playground of the Soviet elite.

It claims the right to add to an existing peace-keeping force there and says it needs to do so because Georgia is building up troops and planning an invasion.

Diplomats say the United Nations observer force stationed in the area has not detected any build-up of Georgian forces. They also say Moscow has been swapping out its army trucks in Abkhazia and replacing them with armored personnel carriers.

Georgia denies plans to invade Abkhazia and accuses Russia's troops of becoming a party to the conflict rather than a neutral force.

SHARPENING RHETORIC

Tbilisi has also been sharpening its rhetoric and accuses Russia of planning to annex Abkhazia and of violating its territorial integrity by sending in more troops without Georgia's consent.

Putin, who is expected to preserve significant influence as Medvedev's prime minister, says Russia has an obligation to protect the residents of the breakaway regions because most of them hold Russian passports.