Zimbabwe solution could now take years

By Cris Chinaka - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - A solution to Zimbabwe's crisis could be months or even years away despite President Robert Mugabe's public promise, under heavy international pressure, to negotiate with the opposition.

Mugabe suffered unprecedented African and world censure after his refusal to call off a presidential vote in which he was re-elected as the sole candidate last week following opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's withdrawal.

The African Union called for talks leading to a unity government and the West is preparing new sanctions against Mugabe's entourage because of violence which the opposition Movement for Democratic Change says killed 86 supporters.

Analysts said however that Mugabe is far from surrendering the power he has held since independence from Britain in 1980.

"Anyone who thinks Mugabe or (his ruling) ZANU-PF are on their way out or about to surrender, will be surprised that we are into a long game," said Lovemore Madhuku, a political analyst and chairman of National Constitutional Assembly (NCA).

"Yes, there is pressure but Mugabe clearly went into this for strategic reasons, to ease pressure on his government and to get some breathing space," he said.

"I think his strategy is to wear the opposition down, make a few concessions, but he is not going to do anything that substantially changes or threatens the ZANU-PF order," Madhuku said.

Some analysts say Mugabe and ZANU-PF might still want to strike a deal with the opposition before South African President Thabo Mbeki leaves office next year.

Mbeki is widely seen by critics as sympathetic to Mugabe, but his likely successor, ruling African National Congress president Jacob Zuma, has openly criticized the Zimbabwean government.

ZUMA

"ZANU-PF may decide that they want a solution before Mbeki leaves office next year. Zuma may not be so friendly and accommodating," said John Makumbe, a political analyst.

But other experts see a much longer timeline and do not think Zuma's likely succession will necessarily accelerate Mugabe's departure.

The success of any dialogue hinges on ZANU-PF hardliners and the security establishment, increasingly influential in Mugabe's politics and mindful of their own welfare.

"It is a question of Mugabe and his henchmen, the security chiefs. They will not budge until their concerns have been addressed, particularly iron-clad guarantees on immunity from prosecution," Makumbe said.

Mark Schroeder, sub-Saharan director of risk analysis firm Stratfor, believes that will be the hard part and it could take much longer than a few months.