Kibaki shows strongman streak in Kenya chaos

By C. Bryson Hull - Analysis

NAIROBI (Reuters) - President Mwai Kibaki has shown streaks of a strongman in handling post-election turmoil, but analysts say the ever-patient economist is biding his time and letting political anger run out so Kenya can return to normal.

Long seen as one of Africa's gentleman leaders with a style some say is indecisive, Kibaki showed willingness to use the strong arm of the state after election protests and ethnic violence tarnished Kenya's stable reputation.

Hundreds of riot and paramilitary police fired live rounds in the air and used tear gas, water cannons and clubs to prevent a central Nairobi rally on Thursday. Exhausted protesters failed to turn up for another planned demonstration on Friday.

But amid the spate of African news cliches -- riots, rigged polls and tribal violence -- analysts say a gentler kind of heavy hand has emerged, consistent with Kibaki's patient nature.

"Kibaki has contained the demonstrations in a relatively civil way. I think he has acted gently, perhaps too gently. He has this strategy of allowing people to vent their anger," said Chweya Ludeki, a University of Nairobi political scientist.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga says many of the 300 dead in the violence were killed by police bullets, but police counter they have only shot looters taking advantage of the mayhem.

Government security sources say Kibaki's men were prepared to declare a state of emergency -- last seen after a 1982 coup attempt in which Odinga took part -- and call out the military. But Kibaki declined, even though Odinga has vowed more protests.

Kibaki on Thursday extended what analysts say was a challenge to Odinga: "I am ready to have dialogue with concerned parties once the nation is calm and the political temperatures are lowered enough for constructive and productive engagement."

Ludeki said: "Kibaki is hoping that once that anger goes its full course, then perhaps normalcy will resume in its own time."

His calculation may be astute. Already many Kenyans are sick of the violence and concerned about earning a daily wage.

"People should go back to work. If they don't go back, people will lose more. It is our fight, yes, but let's do it in a democratic way, not violently," said Odinga supporter Benson Mwala, a Nairobi taxi driver.

GENTLE

Kibaki is generally viewed as a far cry from his two strongman predecessors, Daniel arap Moi and founding president Jomo Kenyatta. He is a trained economist who always takes his time to act and is said to be fond of delegating.

But with a political career stretching back to before independence in 1963, it is likely that Kibaki picked up a few lessons on the way, including the use of powerful executive tools fashioned by his former bosses.

Kibaki had himself hurriedly sworn at his residency an hour after being named the winner on Sunday.