Zimbabwe in limbo as Mugabe fights back

By Stella Mapenzauswa - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - For a few days, many Zimbabweans dared to believe President Robert Mugabe's rule was drawing to a close; now they fear he will cling to power, reviving ruthless tactics used to cow his opponents a decade ago.

Twelve days after an election which saw the ruling ZANU-PF lose control of parliament for the first time since 1980, hopes are fading for a change from Mugabe, who critics blame for driving his once-prosperous nation into economic catastrophe.

No presidential result has been announced, an opposition legal bid to reveal it is dragging through the courts and ZANU-PF is clearly preparing for a Mugabe-Tsvangirai runoff.

Meanwhile Mugabe is deploying the same independence war veterans and youth militias who helped him overcome a strong MDC challenge in a parliamentary vote in 2000 and the last presidential poll in 2002.

The mainly-white Commercial Farmers Union says war veterans, used by ZANU-PF against its members in 2000, have since the weekend evicted more than 60 farmers, accused by Mugabe of bankrolling the MDC.

"What the war veterans are doing is preparing for a re-run because Mugabe realizes that an announcement that he has won outright will not be believed," said political analyst Lovemore Madhuku.

"You will get the war veterans again on the warpath. If there is a runoff the war veterans would make it difficult for some people to turn out to vote."

"They might not beat up people the way they did last time, but there will be a lot of intimidation," said Madhuku, a critic of Mugabe and chairman of pressure group National Constitutional Assembly.

GROWING ANGER

Despite growing anger over a deepening economic crisis that has brought the world's worst hyper-inflation and shortages of basic commodities, fuel, water and electricity, Mugabe has successfully used state security agents to suppress any attempts at big street protests over the past eight years.

Analysts believe memories of those often brutal reprisals have stopped Zimbabweans going onto the streets over the past week despite rising frustration over the election stalemate.

The mobile phone network, a key link between Zimbabweans at home and abroad, has been stretched to the limit over the past week as they send SMS messages venting their frustration.

"Rigging machine still down. Our technicians are working flat out to rectify the problem. Please keep waiting," reads one spoof message.

Although analysts have largely excluded an outbreak of violence similar to that which engulfed Kenya after December's disputed election, some believe prospects of another five years of Mugabe's rule might just tip Zimbabweans over the edge.

"It is quite disappointing and a bizarre situation where anticipation around a possible political transition that would have marked a watershed moment for Zimbabwe has turned into frustration," said political analyst Chris Maroleng.