Zimbabwe crisis unlikely to end with elections

By Cris Chinaka - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's presidential vote is unlikely to end the country's accelerating political and economic crisis, with neither side willing to enter a unity government to end the bloodshed.

There are growing calls for a coalition government instead of an election because of mounting violence. U.S. based Human Rights Watch and ruling ZANU-PF party defector Simba Makoni have both said a fair poll is impossible in the current climate.

But opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who says 66 of his supporters have been murdered in a brutal government campaign, has rejected the call.

ZANU-PF hardliners, who blame the violence on the MDC, despise Tsvangirai and are also unlikely to agree.

However a win by either President Robert Mugabe or Tsvangirai in the June 27 run-off poll would likely not be accepted by opposing supporters and could plunge the once prosperous country deeper into crisis and violence.

"What is clear is that the election (run-off) is not going to end the crisis because Mugabe has declared war to stay," said John Makumbe, a veteran political commentator and Mugabe critic.

Makumbe said Mugabe's personal dislike of Tsvangirai -- whom he calls a "pathetic Western puppet" -- would hinder any efforts to unite and be viewed by hardliners as political defeat.

"At best, I think ZANU-PF would try to work with other MDC officials but not Tsvangirai. In the short-term I think this political stalemate is going to continue, the economy is going to continue crumbling and people are going to suffer," he said.

Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of political pressure group National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) agreed.

"For the MDC, the political violence that is going on is also hardening feelings in its ranks...and if we are going to get talks on a government of national unity, these talks are going to be long and hard," he said.

"What I see is a long drawn crisis, and more hard days ahead."

ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

The MDC blames Mugabe for Zimbabwe's economic collapse. Inflation is at least 165,000 percent, unemployment 80 percent and there are chronic food and fuel shortages. The U.N. says almost a quarter of the population need humanitarian assistance.

Mugabe and ZANU-PF lost both presidential and parliamentary elections on March 29 but Tsvangirai did not win enough votes for an outright victory, forcing a second round.

The MDC, human rights groups and Western powers say ZANU-PF has deployed security forces, war veterans and youth militia in a campaign of violence and dirty tricks to cripple Tsvangirai's chances this time.