After praise for Bali climate deal: the hard part

By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent - Analysis

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - A "historic" Bali deal. A "Berlin Wall" dividing rich and poor nations on global warming policy falls. A "new chapter" for Washington after six years of climate disputes with many of its allies.

And now comes the hard part.

After all the praise for the agreement hammered out at the 190-nation Bali meeting to work out a long-term climate treaty involving all nations by late 2009, governments will have to work out the details.

"We will have two tremendously demanding years, starting right in January," said Humberto Rosa, head of the European Union delegation, after a dramatic U.S. U-turn on Saturday paved the way for a deal to start negotiations on a global pact.

The world has a lot to do to slow soaring emissions and time is running short, even though the U.N. Climate Panel says warming can be beaten at a cost below 0.1 percent of world gross domestic product annually until 2030.

Negotiators left Bali speaking of a historic breakthrough and promising urgent action to fight climate change that could bring more floods, droughts, storms, heatwaves and rising seas.

But in the marathon talks on the Indonesian resort island they spent more than 7 hours one night, for instance, arguing over whether the final text should urge poor countries to take "action" or make a "contribution" to combating climate change. The phrase "cut emissions" was not used.

Working out a fair share of the burden between the United States, China, Russia and India, the top four greenhouse gas emitters, and the rest of the world will be one of the most complex diplomatic puzzles in history.

U.S. PRESIDENT

The talks will test relations between rich and poor and may be partly in limbo until a new president takes office in the White House after George W. Bush steps down in January 2009. Few want to make promises until new U.S. policies are clear.

"If there's a major change in the (U.S.) government policy I expect that there will be a greater acceleration in the execution of commitments," said Indonesian Environment Minister Rachmat Witoelar.

A first meeting on the "Bali roadmap" is likely to be held in Ghana in early 2008, with four sessions around the world each year and culminating with a deal in late 2009 in Copenhagen.

While poor nations ended up promising only vague "action", developed nations dropped a clear references, favored by the European Union but opposed by the United States, to a need for rich nations to axe greenhouse gas emissions by 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 to avert the worst of climate change.

Both the United States and many nations which accepted the 1997 Kyoto Protocol are well above 1990 levels. "Cuts that deep, that fast, are simply impossible," said James Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said of the 2020 goal.

Still, he said, the deal was a "new chapter" in climate diplomacy after Bush rejected Kyoto in 2001, saying emissions caps would harm the U.S. economy and that Kyoto wrongly excluded targets for developing nations.